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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
South Plains Financial, Inc. (XNAS:SPFI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPFI
Name:
SOUTH PLAINS FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:SPFI)
Sector:
69.30M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Curtis C. Griffith
Total Employees:
609
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 78.71% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SOUTH PLAINS FINANCIAL, INC.(SPFI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.75
One Month Price Target:
$26.84
Six Month Price Target :
$27.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.87
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.09
This week:
$23.04
This month :
$19.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
461.81M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
17.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.02%
-21.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.45
$30.89
$19.05
$22.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.98
$23.75
$24.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPFI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.69%
Comparison:
SPFI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 119.20% higher than the industry
& ratio is 18.14% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPFI
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.83%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 100.97% above industry average
Classification:
SPFI, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
SPFI has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.06%
Weekly Volatility:
6.85%
Monthly Volatility:
13.70%
Yearly Volatility:
47.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.90% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.20%
Weekly VaR:
-13.87%
Monthly VaR:
-27.74%
How Much Can the price of
SPFI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.47
This translates to price declining to:
$4.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPFI is a 95.77% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.28% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPFI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.63
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.531
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.751
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.499
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.471
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.82
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.119
Beta is -44.08% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -35.09% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.26%
Sustainable growth rate is 45.27% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.145
Alpha is 1149.23% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 923% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPFI
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -23.75% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
10.61%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.38%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.38%
WACC is -35.04% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.2
Annual revenue growth rate is 64.31% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.07%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 108.57% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.75
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -358.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$7.04
EBITDA per share
$5.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPFI
P/E Ratio:
8.17
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1691.06
P/E ratio is -99.52% lower than main peers & is -34.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $38.84
SPFI is -31.13% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.18
Price to sales ratio is -48.98% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.2
Price to free cash flow: 3.45
Price to free cash flow ratio is -76.08% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
96.67%
Net income growth rate is 75.54% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.38%
Dividend yeild: 1.50%
Previous Dividend: $0.11
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Expected next dividend best case: $0.14
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.08
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 15.75%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.11
2021-10-29--$0.09
2021-04-30--$0.07
2022-01-28--$0.11
2021-07-30--$0.09
2021-01-29--$0.05
Dividend growth rate is -33.14% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
31.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-104.99%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-10.16%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.19
Interest coverage ratio is 767.70% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-37.98%
Annual debt growth is -12093% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.382
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPFI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -23.74% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.042
Kurtosis
10.945
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.596
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPFI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
34.34%
Operating profit margin is -4.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.85%
Effective tax rate is -7.89% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 25.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.44%
Return on assets (ROA) is -37.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
51.16
Current ratio is -14.65% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
349.6K
Each employee generates -8% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
153.1K
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
94.8K
Each employee generates -33% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
113.8K
Each employee generates 37% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.5M
Each employee generates 37% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPFI
AST SPACEMOBILE, INC. (XNAS:ASTS)
GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP, LLC (XNYS:GBLI)
CNB FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CCNE)
THCB
CORE SCIENTIFIC, INC. (XNAS:CORZ)
FCAC
International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. (XNAS:IGIC)
GORES HOLDINGS VIII, INC. (XNAS:GIIX)
CAPSTAR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CSTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
212.92M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
54.38M
-
94.77M
98.15M
3.38M
- 21549.00K
1.07M
135.13M
12.97M
8.26M
93.25M
73.12M
57.73M
72.03M
14.30M
57.73M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.77M
Differed Income Tax :
2.62M
Stock Based Compensation :
528.00K
Change in Working Capital :
11.26M
Accounts Receivables:
2.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
39.16M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
70.62M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1316.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 132412.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
528.61M
793.40M
1.32B
10.51M
-
-
-
57.39M
19.51M
30.93M
793.40M
-
-
901.23M
4.90B
4.00B
-
-
-
-
-
-
122.21M
-
122.21M
3.73B
3.61B
17.67M
255.08M
- 16301.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
387.07M
4.00B
1.59B
122.21M
- 406398.0K
17.62M
- 16488.00K
- 132598.00K
-
-
- 3017.00K
- 1950.00K
108.74M
103.77M
-
41.79M
528.61M
486.82M
70.62M
- 1316.00K
69.30M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPFI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.01
$1,751.11
$1,824.71
$1,901.41
$1,981.34