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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (XNAS:SWBI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SWBI
Name:
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:SWBI)
Sector:
103.25M
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. Mark Peter Smith
Total Employees:
1,715
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 111.34% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.(SWBI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.38
One Month Price Target:
$13.45
Six Month Price Target :
$13.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.5
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.27
This week:
$10.9
This month :
$8.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
615.98M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.76M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.54%
-30.78%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.52
$16.13
$8.24
$10.63
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.35
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.84
$11.40
$11.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SWBI
Sharpe Ratio:
4.17%
Comparison:
SWBI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 284.14% higher than the industry
& ratio is 82.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SWBI
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.90%
Monthly returns:
3.61%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 314.93% above industry average
Classification:
SWBI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.48
Statistical test of Returns:
SWBI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.12%
Weekly Volatility:
9.21%
Monthly Volatility:
18.42%
Yearly Volatility:
63.82%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.65%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.28%
Weekly VaR:
-18.51%
Monthly VaR:
-37.03%
How Much Can the price of
SWBI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.28
This translates to price declining to:
$2.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SWBI is a 161.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 123.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 30.46% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SWBI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.848
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.511
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
-0.01
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.397
Beta is -33.31% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is -7.46% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
92.07%
Sustainable growth rate is 362.05% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.338
Alpha is 8463.10% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2151% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SWBI
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is -5.12% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.67%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.21%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.12%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.12%
WACC is 14.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.04
Annual revenue growth rate is -17.29% below industry average
EPS:
$4.08
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
144.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1806.52% higher than the Aerospace & Defense industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.34
-
-
Debt per share
$0.84
EBITDA per share
$6.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
SWBI
P/E Ratio:
3.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.55
P/E ratio is -83.08% lower than main peers & is -92.96% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $191.73
SWBI is -93.02% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.71
Price to sales ratio is -92.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.04
Price to free cash flow: 5.72
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1139.57%
Net income growth rate is 37540.93% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.98%
Dividend yeild: 2.39%
Previous Dividend: $0.08
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.32
Expected next dividend best case: $0.10
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.06
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.07
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 10.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/06/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/03/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-03-16--$0.08
2021-09-13--$0.08
2021-03-16--$0.05
2021-12-15--$0.08
2021-06-30--$0.08
2020-12-16--$0.05
Dividend growth rate is -175.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.83%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-43.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.82%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-26.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.43% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
133.3
Interest coverage ratio is 1502.81% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-79.68%
Annual debt growth is -187% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.68%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.171
Statistical significance of correlation:
SWBI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -68.42% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.064
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.152
Kurtosis
10.716
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.468
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SWBI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
171%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
29.12%
Operating profit margin is -105.85% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
171%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.94%
Effective tax rate is -3.34% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
64.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is 718.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
39.48%
Return on assets (ROA) is 824.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.29
Current ratio is -27.59% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
16
Cash conversion cycle is -97.22% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.75%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
503.9K
Each employee generates 46% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
165.9K
Each employee generates 343% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
113.4K
Each employee generates 1664% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
60.2K
Each employee generates -2693% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
101.7K
Each employee generates -2693% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -36.08%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 20669.52% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SWBI
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNL)
KELLY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:KELYA)
KELLY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:KELYB)
IES Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:IESC)
OFSSZ
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
CONIFER HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CNFRL)
APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:APOG)
GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION (XNAS:GLDD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
864.13M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
489.56M
374.56M
7.26M
72.49M
115.65M
43.16M
-
122.91M
-
2.14M
30.07M
284.59M
251.65M
194.49M
252.39M
57.89M
194.49M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.47M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.45M
Change in Working Capital :
23.29M
Accounts Receivables:
26.30M
Other Working Capital:
21.99M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
109.09M
Investments in PP&E:
- 5769.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/31/21
2022
Q1
171.41M
-
171.41M
41.20M
97.14M
8.50M
318.26M
139.63M
19.02M
4.36M
-
-
11.41M
174.42M
-
492.67M
54.58M
2.45M
32.96M
2.36M
79.42M
138.82M
38.51M
14.38M
53.79M
-
192.61M
74.00K
398.22M
73.0K
- 98307.00K
July 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
612.47M
300.06M
492.67M
-
40.96M
- 130454.0K
-
1.00K
- 5768.00K
- 264.00K
-
- 40000.00K
- 3844.00K
- 815.00K
- 44923.00K
-
58.40M
171.41M
113.02M
109.09M
- 5838.00K
103.25M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SWBI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.29
$15.19
$16.14
$17.15
$18.22