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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Smartsheet Inc. (XNYS:SMAR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SMAR
Name:
SMARTSHEET INC. (XNYS:SMAR)
Sector:
- 8198.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Mark Mader
Total Employees:
2,539
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.37% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SMARTSHEET INC.(SMAR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
34.16
One Month Price Target:
$34.43
Six Month Price Target :
$35.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$33.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$34.39
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.51
This week:
$28.24
This month :
$22.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.42B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
129.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.2%
-22.99%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.45
$40.84
$21.87
$27.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.81
$29.30
$30.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SMAR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.82%
Comparison:
SMAR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -15.25% lower than the industry
& is -64.16% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SMAR
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.20%
Monthly returns:
0.80%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -3.76% below industry average
Classification:
SMAR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
SMAR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.80%
Weekly Volatility:
8.49%
Monthly Volatility:
16.97%
Yearly Volatility:
58.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
7.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 97.57% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.75%
Weekly VaR:
-17.34%
Monthly VaR:
-34.68%
How Much Can the price of
SMAR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.84
This translates to price declining to:
$5.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SMAR is a 144.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 109.68% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.58% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SMAR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.40
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.148
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.624
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.24
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.325
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.716
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.367
Beta is 2.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 5.05% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.032
Alpha is 35.39% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -203% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SMAR
Equity cost of capital:
0.128
Equity cost of capital is 3.76% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.01%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.01%
WACC is 27.57% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.65
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.45
Annual revenue growth rate is 18.96% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.90%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2.00% higher than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.53
EBITDA per share
-$1.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
SMAR
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.71
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
SMAR is -111.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.34
Price to sales ratio is -35.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.45
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
64.68%
Net income growth rate is -73.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-67.54%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-39.14%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-13923.46
Interest coverage ratio is -26310.54% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
36.77%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.505
Statistical significance of correlation:
SMAR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 0.40% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.043
Kurtosis
3.192
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.426
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SMAR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
316%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-33.46%
Operating profit margin is 74.65% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
316%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.23%
Effective tax rate is -100.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-39.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is 198.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-22.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is 489.29% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.78
Current ratio is -40.46% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
71.2
Cash conversion cycle is -24.88% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 30.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-11.60%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
237.1K
Each employee generates -31% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 71.3K
Each employee generates -763% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 80.5K
Each employee generates 362% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.2K
Each employee generates -58% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
140.6K
Each employee generates -58% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 24.36%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1493.10% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SMAR
Shift4 Payments Inc (XNYS:FOUR)
COMPASS, INC (XNYS:COMP)
TD SYNNEX CORPORATION (XNYS:SNX)
CACI INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:CACI)
LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:LPLA)
ANAPLAN, INC. (XNYS:PLAN)
VONTIER CORPORATION (XNYS:VNT)
CLGX
JABIL INC. (XNYS:JBL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
602.06M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
127.06M
475.00M
181.49M
121.23M
494.99M
373.76M
-
676.48M
425.00K
13.00K
23.00M
- 181005.00K
- 201477.00K
- 204482.00K
- 204020.00K
462.00K
- 204482.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.79M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
23.72M
Change in Working Capital :
- 6771.00K
Accounts Receivables:
13.36M
Other Working Capital:
- 7136.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.37M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 2961.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3220.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
439.66M
-
439.66M
89.31M
-
17.45M
546.42M
109.98M
125.61M
51.62M
-
-
69.85M
357.06M
-
903.48M
2.83M
17.38M
-
238.69M
47.48M
306.39M
68.70M
3.90M
73.58M
-
379.97M
-
-
- 408509.0K
-
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
803.54M
523.51M
903.48M
-
86.08M
- 353577.0K
-
- 2017.00K
- 5237.00K
-
-
-
-
5.33M
5.33M
447.00K
- 2424.00K
439.92M
442.35M
- 2961.00K
- 5237.00K
- 8198.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SMAR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.20
$29.76
$32.57
$35.64
$39.00