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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Slm Corporation (XNAS:SLMBP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SLMBP
Name:
SLM CORPORATION (XNAS:SLMBP)
Sector:
62.79M
Industry:
Credit Services
CEO:
Raymond J. Quinlan
Total Employees:
1,450
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -49.07% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SLM CORPORATION(SLMBP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CREDIT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
57.1
One Month Price Target:
$57.48
Six Month Price Target :
$59.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$61.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$56.87
Price Upper limit ($) :
$57.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$53.88
This week:
$49.9
This month :
$42.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
251.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.91%
-25.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.03
$65.07
$42.17
$49.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$61.32
$51.37
$52.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SLMBP
Sharpe Ratio:
4.38%
Comparison:
SLMBP, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 135.85% higher than the industry
& ratio is 92.36% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SLMBP
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.66%
Monthly returns:
2.64%
Yearly returns:
19.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 66.35% above industry average
Classification:
SLMBP, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
SLMBP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.81%
Weekly Volatility:
6.29%
Monthly Volatility:
12.57%
Yearly Volatility:
43.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.69% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.64%
Weekly VaR:
-12.62%
Monthly VaR:
-25.23%
How Much Can the price of
SLMBP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-87.41%
This translates to price declining to:
$45.23
This translates to price declining to:
$7.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SLMBP is a 78.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 52.58% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.79% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SLMBP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.694
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.981
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.387
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.566
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.876
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.122
Beta is 5.01% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.332
Beta is -11.59% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
25.18%
Sustainable growth rate is -25.36% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.205
Alpha is 201.89% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1305% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SLMBP
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is -8.61% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.61%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.22%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.22%
WACC is 23.98% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.02
Annual revenue growth rate is -70.06% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 316.87%
Equity growth rate per share is 1231.04% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$22.09
EBITDA per share
$4.96
Valuation Analysis Today of
SLMBP
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
98.08
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $21.04
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.74
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.46
Price to sales ratio is 62.75% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.02
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.86% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
138.07%
Net income growth rate is 754.80% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.90%
Dividend yeild: 3.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.66
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.66
Previous Dividend: $2.06
Expected next dividend best case: $0.81
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.51
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.60
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -2.44%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.66
2021-12-02--$0.46
2021-06-03--$0.48
2022-03-03--$0.48
2021-09-02--$0.47
2021-03-04--$0.48
Dividend growth rate is -74.50% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
271.62%
Net debt to equity ratio:
112.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.88%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.39
Interest coverage ratio is -65.44% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
14.29%
Annual debt growth is -71% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.42%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.455
Statistical significance of correlation:
SLMBP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.561
Stock price is -18.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.561
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.061
Kurtosis
35.839
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.6
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SLMBP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
90%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.16%
Operating profit margin is -16.91% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
90%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.79%
Effective tax rate is 14.47% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
31.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -25.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is -63.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.84%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates 61% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
859.3K
Each employee generates 105% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
447.0K
Each employee generates 85% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
43.3K
Each employee generates -26% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.9M
Each employee generates -26% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SLMBP
GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE, INC. (XNAS:GSHD)
KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:KNSL)
GOHEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GOCO)
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WTFCM)
AMERIS BANCORP (XNAS:ABCB)
FIRST HAWAIIAN, INC. (XNAS:FHB)
INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)
SERVISFIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:SFBS)
360 DigiTech, Inc. (XNAS:QFIN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.70B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
57.90M
541.75M
-
282.59M
282.59M
-
61.87M
125.50M
1.81B
367.04M
17.25M
1.25B
409.93M
648.12M
861.70M
213.58M
648.12M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.92M
Differed Income Tax :
37.25M
Stock Based Compensation :
11.92M
Change in Working Capital :
- 227759.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 185294.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 992.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
107.64M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
62.79M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 127702.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 536633.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.26B
2.34B
5.60B
1.48B
-
-
-
148.15M
-
-
2.52B
-
-
2.79B
31.84B
29.05B
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.55B
-
5.55B
32.56B
27.01B
86.92M
2.91B
- 39514.0K
- 1167815.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
183.39M
2.04B
29.05B
4.86B
5.55B
2.3B
686.81M
- 1011338.00K
- 988867.00K
- 381005.00K
-
- 169322.00K
- 31768.00K
413.39M
- 168710.00K
-
- 1094789.00K
3.45B
4.55B
62.79M
-
62.79M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SLMBP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$46.21
$49.87
$53.82
$58.08
$62.68