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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sl Green Realty Corp. (XNYS:SLG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SLG
Name:
SL GREEN REALTY CORP. (XNYS:SLG)
Sector:
81.40M
Industry:
REIT�Office
CEO:
Mr. Marc Holliday
Total Employees:
931
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SL GREEN REALTY CORP.(SLG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�OFFICE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
44.36
One Month Price Target:
$44.72
Six Month Price Target :
$46.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$48.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$44.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$44.6
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$41.14
This week:
$37.17
This month :
$29.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.89B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
64.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
36.92%
-20.18%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.30
$52.56
$29.42
$36.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.92
$38.34
$39.80
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SLG
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.57%
Comparison:
SLG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -31.86% lower than the industry
& is -169.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SLG
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.23%
Monthly returns:
-0.93%
Yearly returns:
-13.59%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.12% below industry average
Classification:
SLG, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.12
Statistical test of Returns:
SLG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.51%
Weekly Volatility:
7.84%
Monthly Volatility:
15.69%
Yearly Volatility:
54.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.56% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.25%
Weekly VaR:
-16.21%
Monthly VaR:
-32.43%
How Much Can the price of
SLG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.40
This translates to price declining to:
$6.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SLG is a 128.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 96.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 27.20% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SLG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.46
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.114
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.575
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.868
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.053
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.159
Beta is 26.05% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.988
Beta is 47.82% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.34%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.98% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.243
Alpha is 3.30% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1546% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SLG
Equity cost of capital:
0.132
Equity cost of capital is 32.64% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.65%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.26%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.26%
WACC is 51.12% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.54
Annual revenue growth rate is 95.62% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 130.82% higher than the REIT�Office industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.56
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 18.16%
Equity growth rate per share is -292.44% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$11.49
Valuation Analysis Today of
SLG
P/E Ratio:
10
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
69.92
P/E ratio is -85.70% lower than main peers & is -83.78% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $400.15
SLG is -88.91% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.54
Price to sales ratio is -45.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.54
Price to free cash flow: 9.74
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
141.27%
Net income growth rate is 180.76% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.80%
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $1.24
Expected next dividend best case: $0.92
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.53
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 65.36%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.31
2022-04-28--$0.31
2022-02-25--$0.31
2022-05-27--$0.31
2022-03-30--$0.31
2022-01-28--$0.31
Dividend growth rate is -668.70% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
120.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
51.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -122.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.62
Interest coverage ratio is -406.99% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.26%
Annual debt growth is -106% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.596
Statistical significance of correlation:
SLG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.626
Stock price is -4.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.626
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.105
Kurtosis
20.72
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.559
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SLG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
261%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.34%
Operating profit margin is -27.63% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
261%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is 125.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 53.33% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
0.24
Current ratio is -112.33% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
865.6K
Each employee generates -62% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
793.5K
Each employee generates -53% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
501.3K
Each employee generates -23% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
87.4K
Each employee generates 122% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 122% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SLG
INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:IIPR)
INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, INC (XNYS:IRT)
BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNYS:BXMT)
RAYONIER INC. (XNYS:RYN)
THE HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION (XNYS:HHC)
RITHM CAPITAL CORP. (XNYS:RITM)
RYMAN HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:RHP)
NATIONAL STORAGE AFFILIATES TRUST (XNYS:NSA)
AGREE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:ADC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�42%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
805.85M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
282.88M
522.97M
-
51.26M
96.80M
-
195.47M
292.28M
1.00M
63.57M
208.51M
738.77M
115.60M
466.69M
492.24M
-
466.69M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
46.98M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 737058.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 809500.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
763.73M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
81.40M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
223.67M
32.89M
256.56M
-
-
-
256.56M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10.76B
11.01B
139.46M
955.43M
-
110.63M
- 139460.00K
1.07B
-
4.66B
4.66B
-
5.72B
8.40M
846.65M
- 7261.0K
3.88B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
670.50M
4.73B
10.45B
-
955.43M
731.8M
-
13.50M
13.50M
-
-
-
-
- 124564.00K
- 124564.00K
-
-
-
336.98M
81.40M
-
81.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SLG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$48.95
$213.94
$234.94
$258.01
$283.34