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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (XNAS:SWKS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SWKS
Name:
SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:SWKS)
Sector:
480.10M
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. Liam Griffin
Total Employees:
11,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -206.76% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC.(SWKS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
98.4
One Month Price Target:
$99.07
Six Month Price Target :
$102.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$106.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$97.94
Price Upper limit ($) :
$98.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$92.61
This week:
$85.45
This month :
$72.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.67B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
160.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.46%
-18.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$125.29
$113.01
$71.51
$83.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$109.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.39
$87.76
$90.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SWKS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.60%
Comparison:
SWKS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -80.51% lower than the industry
& is -73.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SWKS
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.52%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -80.30% below industry average
Classification:
SWKS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
SWKS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.88%
Weekly Volatility:
6.44%
Monthly Volatility:
12.88%
Yearly Volatility:
44.60%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.89%
Weekly VaR:
-13.16%
Monthly VaR:
-26.33%
How Much Can the price of
SWKS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-91.20%
This translates to price declining to:
$75.78
This translates to price declining to:
$8.66
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SWKS is a 85.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 59.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -18.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SWKS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.22
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.728
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.03
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.857
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.29
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.954
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.623
Beta is -25.10% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is -13.82% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.23%
Sustainable growth rate is -26.84% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.052
Alpha is -127.09% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -330% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SWKS
Equity cost of capital:
0.115
Equity cost of capital is -10.42% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.19%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.19%
WACC is -17.10% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.96
Annual revenue growth rate is 52.65% above the industry average
EPS:
$8.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -63.29% lower than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.35
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 53.70%
Equity growth rate per share is 279.24% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$14.67
EBITDA per share
$13.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
SWKS
P/E Ratio:
12.51
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.62
P/E ratio is -36.28% lower than main peers & is -69.85% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $341.77
SWKS is -71.21% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.69
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $25.77
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.99
Price to sales ratio is -63.17% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.96
Price to free cash flow: 15.49
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
79.04%
Net income growth rate is -237.99% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.75%
Dividend yeild: 2.28%
Previous Dividend: $0.56
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.56
Previous Dividend: $2.24
Expected next dividend best case: $0.60
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.52
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.51
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 14/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 24/05/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-23--$0.56
2021-11-22--$0.56
2021-05-17--$0.50
2022-02-18--$0.56
2021-08-16--$0.56
2021-02-12--$0.50
Dividend growth rate is -3.58% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
44.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
28.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -29.94% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
58.25
Interest coverage ratio is 77.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.77
Statistical significance of correlation:
SWKS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is 22.75% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.061
Kurtosis
5.17
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.01
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SWKS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
192%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
28.08%
Operating profit margin is 19.33% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
192%
Effective Tax Rate:
5.05%
Effective tax rate is -66.56% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.68%
Return on equity (ROE) is -10.20% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.89%
Return on assets (ROA) is 20.74% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
4.2
Current ratio is 3.40% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
45.3
Cash conversion cycle is -17.96% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
479.4K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
189.6K
Each employee generates -19% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
124.5K
Each employee generates -23% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
43.6K
Each employee generates 57% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
523.2K
Each employee generates 57% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 14.70%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3.78% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SWKS
TERADYNE, INC. (XNAS:TER)
Garmin Ltd (XNYS:GRMN)
SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:STX)
DOCUSIGN, INC. (XNAS:DOCU)
CDW CORPORATION (XNAS:CDW)
MXIM
ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:ON)
ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:ZBRA)
Affirm Holdings Inc (XNAS:AFRM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�63%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
5.27B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.75B
2.52B
591.80M
-
350.60M
-
85.70M
1.03B
-
35.80M
606.90M
2.09B
1.48B
1.37B
1.44B
72.80M
1.37B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
181.50M
Differed Income Tax :
6.10M
Stock Based Compensation :
50.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 58200.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 75400.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
581.70M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 29600.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
876.40M
137.00M
1.01B
774.00M
838.50M
237.50M
2.86B
1.73B
2.18B
1.63B
3.50M
108.20M
101.00M
5.76B
633.20M
8.62B
279.40M
29.70M
105.80M
-
372.80M
681.90M
2.35B
248.80M
2.60B
-
3.28B
41.10M
5.49B
- 4700.0K
- 195400.00K
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
3.78B
5.33B
8.62B
140.50M
2.38B
1.5B
33.20M
- 101600.00K
- 98000.00K
- 50000.00K
-
- 349500.00K
- 92500.00K
1.80M
- 490200.00K
-
- 6500.00K
876.40M
882.90M
581.70M
- 101600.00K
480.10M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SWKS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$106.97
$157.25
$170.10
$183.99
$199.02