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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Skyline Champion Corporation (XNYS:SKY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SKY
Name:
SKYLINE CHAMPION CORPORATION (XNYS:SKY)
Sector:
22.68M
Industry:
Residential Construction
CEO:
Mr. Mark Yost
Total Employees:
8,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -55.71% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SKYLINE CHAMPION CORPORATION(SKY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
55.18
One Month Price Target:
$55.81
Six Month Price Target :
$58.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$62.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.9
Price Upper limit ($) :
$55.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$50.91
This week:
$45.63
This month :
$36.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
56.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.87%
-19.17%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.98
$65.80
$35.38
$44.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.85
$47.53
$49.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SKY
Sharpe Ratio:
3.53%
Comparison:
SKY, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 41.44% higher than the industry
& ratio is 55.05% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SKY
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.72%
Monthly returns:
2.89%
Yearly returns:
23.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 50.75% above industry average
Classification:
SKY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
SKY has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.84%
Weekly Volatility:
8.58%
Monthly Volatility:
17.16%
Yearly Volatility:
59.46%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.74%
Weekly VaR:
-17.30%
Monthly VaR:
-34.60%
How Much Can the price of
SKY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.21
This translates to price declining to:
$8.28
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SKY is a 144.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 109.23% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.44% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SKY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.302
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.841
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.934
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.202
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.974
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.421
Beta is 42.72% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.434
Beta is 41.45% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
30.28%
Sustainable growth rate is 8.15% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.176
Alpha is 75.78% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1123% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SKY
Equity cost of capital:
0.170
Equity cost of capital is 31.38% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
16.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.42%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.49%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.49%
WACC is 38.53% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$38.80
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -393.02% below industry average
EPS:
$4.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
48.56%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 155.68% higher than the Residential Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.14
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -360.58% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.69
EBITDA per share
$6.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
SKY
P/E Ratio:
9.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
4.47
P/E ratio is 119.49% higher than main peers & is 7.43% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $39.55
SKY is 39.51% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.42
Price to sales ratio is -0.03% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.12
Price to free cash flow: 17.59
Price to free cash flow ratio is -68.46% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-20.40%
Net income growth rate is -122.74% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
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-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-35.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-22.27%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.12% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
115.82
Interest coverage ratio is 25.02% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-41.51%
Annual debt growth is -1076% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.587
Statistical significance of correlation:
SKY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is 5.91% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.055
Kurtosis
3.885
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.19
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SKY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
106%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.08%
Operating profit margin is 11.19% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
106%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.93%
Effective tax rate is 22.33% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
40.49%
Return on equity (ROE) is 41.84% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
25.15%
Return on assets (ROA) is 69.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.95
Current ratio is -74.86% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
8.7
Cash conversion cycle is -51.69% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.58%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
262.8K
Each employee generates -84% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
41.5K
Each employee generates -87% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
29.5K
Each employee generates -88% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.7K
Each employee generates -111% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
50.5K
Each employee generates -111% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
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Competitors/Peer firms of
SKY
ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO. (XNYS:ANF)
VEONEER, INC. (XNYS:VNE)
Jumia Technologies AG (XNYS:JMIA)
HOME BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBCP)
CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:CCS)
MANCHESTER UNITED PLC (XNYS:MANU)
DILLARD'S, INC. (XNYS:DDS)
CEDAR FAIR UNT (XNYS:FUN)
THE BUCKLE, INC. (XNYS:BKE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
2.21B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.62B
589.12M
-
-
256.22M
-
-
256.22M
500.00K
3.01M
15.53M
348.98M
332.91M
248.04M
330.43M
82.39M
248.04M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.15M
Differed Income Tax :
4.08M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.44M
Change in Working Capital :
- 21710.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3097.00K
Other Working Capital:
273.93M
Other Non-Cash Items:
49.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
31.91M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9221.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/3/21
2022
Q1
287.74M
-
287.74M
60.55M
191.60M
22.50M
562.37M
121.31M
191.97M
56.95M
-
16.12M
37.68M
424.02M
-
986.40M
66.08M
28.78M
-
64.55M
129.04M
288.44M
39.33M
41.52M
85.37M
-
373.81M
1.57M
124.47M
- 6646.0K
493.19M
July 3, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.87B
612.58M
986.40M
-
68.11M
- 219630.0K
-
2.00K
- 9219.00K
-
-
-
-
1.80M
1.80M
673.00K
25.16M
287.74M
262.58M
31.91M
- 9221.00K
22.68M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SKY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$62.16
$70.63
$80.25
$91.19
$103.61