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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Skechers U.S.A., Inc. (XNYS:SKX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SKX
Name:
SKECHERS U.S.A., INC. (XNYS:SKX)
Sector:
- 224161.00K
Industry:
Footwear & Accessories
CEO:
Mr. Robert Greenberg
Total Employees:
6,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 10.16% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SKECHERS U.S.A., INC.(SKX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FOOTWEAR & ACCESSORIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.16
One Month Price Target:
$37.43
Six Month Price Target :
$38.76
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$36.98
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.8
This week:
$31.89
This month :
$26.61
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.77B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
155.73M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.6%
-19.75%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.11
$43.10
$26.21
$31.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.40
$32.83
$33.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SKX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.84%
Comparison:
SKX, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -46.41% lower than the industry
& is -63.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SKX
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.70%
Yearly returns:
13.15%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -36.17% below industry average
Classification:
SKX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
SKX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.11%
Weekly Volatility:
6.95%
Monthly Volatility:
13.90%
Yearly Volatility:
48.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -92.90% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.35%
Weekly VaR:
-14.19%
Monthly VaR:
-28.38%
How Much Can the price of
SKX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$27.98
This translates to price declining to:
$5.57
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SKX is a 100.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 71.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.38% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SKX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.021
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.444
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.826
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.969
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.791
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.8
Beta is -28.71% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.075
Beta is 19.44% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
26.06%
Sustainable growth rate is 4.63% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.035
Alpha is -234.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -226% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SKX
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is 13.61% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.32%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.32%
WACC is 6.05% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$42.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.58
Annual revenue growth rate is 7.97% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 58.48% higher than the Footwear & Accessories industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$8.54
EBITDA per share
$4.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
SKX
P/E Ratio:
8.16
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.16
P/E ratio is -74.63% lower than main peers & is -61.97% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $104.27
SKX is -64.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.87
Price to sales ratio is -66.89% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.58
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 4.42% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
146.28%
Net income growth rate is -14.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
39.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
31.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.42%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -55.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
99.5
Interest coverage ratio is -24.76% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.38%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.64
Statistical significance of correlation:
SKX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
Stock price is 1.31% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.052
Kurtosis
4.494
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.033
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SKX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.23%
Operating profit margin is -23.72% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Effective Tax Rate:
-40.39%
Effective tax rate is -324.61% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -23.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.68%
Return on assets (ROA) is -15.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.44
Current ratio is -6.36% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-11.6
Cash conversion cycle is -115.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 30% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
108.6K
Each employee generates -12% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
123.3K
Each employee generates 19% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 36.2K
Each employee generates 202% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
503.1K
Each employee generates 202% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SKX
BOYD GAMING CORPORATION (XNYS:BYD)
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:VAC)
ARENA MINERALS INC. (XTSX:AN)
PVH CORP. (XNYS:PVH)
THE GAP, INC. (XNYS:GPS)
PLANET FITNESS, INC. (XNYS:PLNT)
BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:BFAM)
KOHL'S CORPORATION (XNYS:KSS)
BRUNSWICK CORPORATION (XNYS:BC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�21%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.68B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.43B
3.24B
-
2.16B
2.65B
482.51M
- 19122.00K
2.63B
1.72M
6.77M
143.09M
673.14M
616.42M
764.15M
596.42M
- 240869.00K
764.15M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
36.52M
Differed Income Tax :
5.37M
Stock Based Compensation :
17.97M
Change in Working Capital :
- 347082.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.31M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 134763.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 17992.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
589.91M
104.93M
694.84M
1.08B
1.45B
198.73M
3.43B
2.38B
93.50M
-
125.05M
446.01M
78.58M
3.12B
-
6.55B
812.22M
334.84M
-
-
258.71M
1.41B
1.33B
132.59M
1.47B
-
2.88B
156.00K
3.00B
- 46822.0K
415.36M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.06B
3.37B
6.25B
229.98M
1.66B
1.1B
32.18M
- 89398.00K
- 75212.00K
- 18642.00K
-
- 25000.00K
-
38.68M
- 4966.00K
8.57M
- 206375.00K
589.91M
796.28M
- 134763.00K
- 89398.00K
- 224161.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SKX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.56
$95.42
$103.64
$112.58
$122.29