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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (XNYS:SIX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SIX
Name:
SIX FLAGS ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:SIX)
Sector:
- 87783.00K
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Mr. Michael Spanos
Total Employees:
1,970
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -120.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SIX FLAGS ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION(SIX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.46
One Month Price Target:
$22.73
Six Month Price Target :
$24.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.29
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.39
This week:
$17.83
This month :
$13.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.82B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
83.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.35%
-22.11%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.08
$27.71
$12.84
$17.21
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.35
$18.62
$19.57
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SIX
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.20%
Comparison:
SIX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -111.45% lower than the industry
& is -108.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SIX
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
-0.01%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -100.41% below industry average
Classification:
SIX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
SIX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.49%
Weekly Volatility:
10.05%
Monthly Volatility:
20.09%
Yearly Volatility:
69.60%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.23%
Weekly VaR:
-20.63%
Monthly VaR:
-41.26%
How Much Can the price of
SIX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.26
This translates to price declining to:
$3.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SIX is a 191.24% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 149.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 34.40% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SIX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.415
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.001
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-2.023
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.152
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.115
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.603
Beta is 35.04% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is 52.42% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.180
Alpha is -590.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1149% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SIX
Equity cost of capital:
0.180
Equity cost of capital is 39.60% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-16.80%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.26%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.26%
WACC is -45.34% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-1.8
-
EPS:
$1.83
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-10.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -135.40% lower than the Leisure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.50
-
-
Debt per share
$33.83
EBITDA per share
$5.89
Valuation Analysis Today of
SIX
P/E Ratio:
14.49
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.41
P/E ratio is -21.28% lower than main peers & is -66.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $78.51
SIX is -71.39% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $2.72
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.37
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.2
Price to sales ratio is -60.00% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-1.8
Price to free cash flow: 8.98
Price to free cash flow ratio is -38.84% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.01%
Dividend yeild: 4.81%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $1.08
Expected next dividend best case: $9.48
Expected next dividend worst case: -$8.98
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.54
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -69.88%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 03/11/2020
Previous dividend record date: 03/04/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/02/2020
Dividend History:
2020-03-03--$0.25
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-27--$0.83
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is 3783.27% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-270.94%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-247.73%
Debt to assets ratio:
97.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
89.14%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 51.42% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.21
Interest coverage ratio is -95.71% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.552
Statistical significance of correlation:
SIX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is -2.66% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
5.006
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.088
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SIX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
368%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
28.09%
Operating profit margin is 544.37% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
368%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.61%
Effective tax rate is 16.92% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-15.43%
Return on equity (ROE) is -162.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.55%
Return on assets (ROA) is -12.47% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
39.9x
Current Ratio:
0.98
Current ratio is -55.78% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-67.7
Cash conversion cycle is -203.79% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
788.3K
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
248.4K
Each employee generates 70% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
81.3K
Each employee generates 11% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 44.6K
Each employee generates 55% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.2M
Each employee generates 55% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SIX
TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORPORATION (XNYS:TMHC)
NORDSTROM, INC. (XNYS:JWN)
FIGS, INC. (XNYS:FIGS)
ACUSHNET HOLDINGS CORP. (XNYS:GOLF)
CANADA GOOSE HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:GOOS)
M.D.C. HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:MDC)
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:BOOT)
ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:ALSN)
REVOLVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:RVLV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
1.55B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
128.63M
1.42B
-
208.89M
208.89M
-
779.20M
988.09M
752.00K
152.30M
114.65M
489.43M
436.27M
160.10M
264.25M
62.38M
160.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
29.05M
Differed Income Tax :
- 18347.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.23M
Change in Working Capital :
- 10353.00K
Accounts Receivables:
11.54M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.38M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 55712.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 32071.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/3/22
2022
Q1
252.20M
-
252.20M
86.46M
39.16M
55.45M
433.28M
1.43B
659.62M
344.18M
-
-
15.14M
2.45B
-
2.88B
65.65M
11.38M
-
185.09M
182.14M
444.27M
2.81B
532.57M
3.48B
-
3.92B
2.16M
- 2088913.00K
- 75622.0K
1.12B
April 3, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.12B
- 1037776.00K
2.88B
-
2.82B
2.6B
-
3.08M
- 28990.00K
- 201.00K
299.00K
- 3.00K
- 14.00K
-
81.00K
1.24M
- 83382.00K
252.20M
335.59M
- 55712.00K
- 32071.00K
- 87783.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SIX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.50
$33.79
$38.70
$44.33
$50.78