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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sitio Royalties Corp. (XNYS:STR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FLMN
Name:
SITIO ROYALTIES CORP. (XNYS:STR)
Sector:
14.85M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Daniel C. Herz
Total Employees:
11
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -121.10% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SITIO ROYALTIES CORP.(STR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.22
One Month Price Target:
$25.46
Six Month Price Target :
$26.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.06
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.87
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.54
This week:
$12.52
This month :
-$.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
83.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
270.14%
-23.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.55
$39.30
-$1.11
$11.14
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.69
$15.10
$17.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FLMN
Sharpe Ratio:
4.37%
Comparison:
FLMN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -5.00% lower than the industry
& ratio is 91.54% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FLMN
Daily returns:
0.50%
Weekly returns:
2.49%
Monthly returns:
9.97%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 94.70% above industry average
Classification:
FLMN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
FLMN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
11.21%
Weekly Volatility:
25.07%
Monthly Volatility:
50.13%
Yearly Volatility:
173.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.88%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.27% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-22.52%
Weekly VaR:
-50.37%
Monthly VaR:
-100.73%
How Much Can the price of
FLMN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-83%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.20
This translates to price declining to:
$3.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FLMN is a 610.97% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 509.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 110.01% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FLMN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.931
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.317
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.274
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.07
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.274
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.576
Beta is 6.40% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -16.65% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.049
Alpha is 135.91% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 6680% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FLMN
Equity cost of capital:
0.146
Equity cost of capital is -13.55% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.12%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
10.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -145.74% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.34%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -110.35% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -180.13% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$0.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
FLMN
P/E Ratio:
34.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.87
P/E ratio is 23.11% higher than main peers & is -18.52% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
27.18
Price to sales ratio is 451.99% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
10.28
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -45.74% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-70.23%
Net income growth rate is -109.88% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 38.83%
Dividend yeild: 2.50%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.63
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 17.49%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/05/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-17--$0.18
2021-11-22--$0.16
2021-05-24--$0.10
2022-02-25--$0.15
2021-08-24--$0.15
2021-02-24--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is -57.73% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
37.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -65.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
32.45
Interest coverage ratio is 309.09% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -105% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.054
Statistical significance of correlation:
FLMN does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -86.26% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.199
Kurtosis
490.268
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
20.414
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FLMN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
336%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
50.83%
Operating profit margin is -3794.89% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
336%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.99%
Effective tax rate is -24.26% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.54%
Return on equity (ROE) is 0.33% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.78%
Return on assets (ROA) is 195.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.34
Current ratio is 17.40% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
60.1
Cash conversion cycle is -15.02% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
7.1M
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.9M
Each employee generates 19% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates 282% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.4M
Each employee generates -1565% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
22.1M
Each employee generates -1565% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FLMN
CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS UNT (XNAS:CLMT)
AEMETIS, INC. (XNAS:AMTX)
MATRIX SERVICE COMPANY (XNAS:MTRX)
DORCHESTER MINERALS UNT (XNAS:DMLP)
BLUEKNIGHT ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P. (XNAS:BKEPP)
TRCH
TARGET HOSPITALITY CORP. (XNAS:TH)
GREEN PLAINS PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:GPP)
PVAC
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
77.81M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
11.44M
66.37M
-
16.56M
18.30M
1.74M
3.42M
21.72M
-
984.00K
7.95M
31.93M
39.55M
17.57M
36.15M
5.42M
17.57M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.61M
Differed Income Tax :
480.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
390.00K
Change in Working Capital :
6.58M
Accounts Receivables:
- 1826.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.85M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.92M
-
2.92M
-
-
12.70M
15.62M
296.00K
-
-
-
51.66M
191.46M
243.42M
-
259.04M
6.46M
-
-
-
199.00K
6.66M
-
46.64M
46.64M
-
53.30M
5.00K
1.68M
-
204.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
27.67M
205.73M
259.04M
-
-
- 2921.0K
-
-
-
- 5000.00K
-
-
- 6824.00K
- 2876.00K
- 14700.00K
-
153.00K
2.92M
-
14.85M
-
14.85M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FLMN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.05
$23.42
$26.06
$28.99
$32.26