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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sitime Corporation (XNAS:SITM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SITM
Name:
SITIME CORPORATION (XNAS:SITM)
Sector:
11.99M
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. Rajesh Vashist
Total Employees:
279
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -41.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SITIME CORPORATION(SITM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
99.01
One Month Price Target:
$99.72
Six Month Price Target :
$103.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$107.56
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$98.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$100.31
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$88.24
This week:
$74.92
This month :
$50.82
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
21.29M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
31.53%
-34.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$148.91
$125.37
$49.11
$72.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$117.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.68
$80.25
$85.34
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SITM
Sharpe Ratio:
6.80%
Comparison:
SITM, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 119.61% higher than the industry
& ratio is 198.32% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SITM
Daily returns:
0.38%
Weekly returns:
1.91%
Monthly returns:
7.64%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 186.84% above industry average
Classification:
SITM, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
SITM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.48%
Weekly Volatility:
12.26%
Monthly Volatility:
24.53%
Yearly Volatility:
84.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.58%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.88%
Weekly VaR:
-24.33%
Monthly VaR:
-48.67%
How Much Can the price of
SITM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.75
This translates to price declining to:
$14.85
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SITM is a 243.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 194.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 54.54% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SITM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.905
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.28
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.268
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.752
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.956
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.165
Beta is 10.27% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is -8.89% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -70.03% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.797
Alpha is 316.41% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 5072% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SITM
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is -6.70% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.22
Annual revenue growth rate is 336.57% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
59.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 14.66% higher than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.92
-
-
Debt per share
$0.42
EBITDA per share
$2.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
SITM
P/E Ratio:
41.51
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.25
P/E ratio is 269.09% higher than main peers & is 0.08% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $79.64
SITM is 24.33% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.31
Price to sales ratio is 2.28% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.22
Price to free cash flow: 51.62
Price to free cash flow ratio is 291.76% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-407.56%
Net income growth rate is 611.51% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.37%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-85.71%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-80.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.71% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-6.25%
Annual debt growth is -107% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.505
Statistical significance of correlation:
SITM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is -19.49% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.1
Kurtosis
5.768
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.074
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SITM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
260%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.72%
Operating profit margin is -28.94% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
260%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.25%
Effective tax rate is -98.33% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is -77.55% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
18.72
Current ratio is 360.88% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
30.5
Cash conversion cycle is -44.64% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
34.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
908.7K
Each employee generates 47% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
182.6K
Each employee generates -22% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
150.5K
Each employee generates -7% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
43.0K
Each employee generates 55% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
216.1K
Each employee generates 55% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 64.62%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 356.34% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SITM
SKYE BIOSCIENCE, INC. (OTCM:SKYE)
REPAY HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:RPAY)
OSI SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:OSIS)
GOPRO, INC (XNAS:GPRO)
NANO DIMENSION LTD (XNAS:NNDM)
Sumo Logic Inc (XNAS:SUMO)
TTM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:TTMI)
INFINERA CORPORATION (XNAS:INFN)
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC. (XNAS:SMCI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
253.52M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
87.64M
165.88M
61.52M
-
61.97M
-
-
123.49M
-
-
8.85M
50.94M
42.39M
41.98M
42.09M
106.00K
41.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.54M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
14.28M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2936.00K
Accounts Receivables:
7.73M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
20.03M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7452.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
571.45M
-
571.45M
30.65M
30.75M
4.89M
637.75M
55.69M
-
4.39M
-
-
218.00K
60.30M
-
698.05M
12.51M
2.11M
-
-
19.46M
34.07M
8.94M
1.16M
10.10M
-
44.17M
2.00K
- 24979.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
211.13M
653.87M
698.05M
-
11.05M
- 560404.0K
-
- 583.00K
- 8035.00K
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11.99M
571.45M
559.46M
20.03M
- 8035.00K
11.99M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SITM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$108.10
$117.43
$127.57
$138.59
$150.56