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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Siteone Landscape Supply, Inc. (XNYS:SITE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SITE
Name:
SITEONE LANDSCAPE SUPPLY, INC. (XNYS:SITE)
Sector:
- 128300.00K
Industry:
Industrial Distribution
CEO:
Mr. Doug Black
Total Employees:
5,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -8.69% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SITEONE LANDSCAPE SUPPLY, INC.(SITE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
121.9
One Month Price Target:
$122.83
Six Month Price Target :
$127.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$133.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$121.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$122.69
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$113.97
This week:
$104.17
This month :
$86.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.35%
-23.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$158.68
$141.68
$85.12
$102.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$136.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$132.52
$107.60
$111.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SITE
Sharpe Ratio:
2.86%
Comparison:
SITE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -7.11% lower than the industry
& ratio is 25.56% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SITE
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.50%
Monthly returns:
2.02%
Yearly returns:
22.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 10.08% above industry average
Classification:
SITE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.25
Statistical test of Returns:
SITE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.22%
Weekly Volatility:
7.19%
Monthly Volatility:
14.38%
Yearly Volatility:
49.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.50%
Weekly VaR:
-14.55%
Monthly VaR:
-29.09%
How Much Can the price of
SITE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$91.95
This translates to price declining to:
$18.29
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SITE is a 105.32% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 75.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 18.09% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SITE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.36
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.017
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.438
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.902
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.168
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.976
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.364
Beta is 0.01% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.265
Beta is 7.80% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
24.99%
Sustainable growth rate is 48.32% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.117
Alpha is 15.14% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 746% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SITE
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 5.72% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.32%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.83%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.83%
WACC is 2.94% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$80.62
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.99
Annual revenue growth rate is 140.00% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
40.12%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 79.08% higher than the Industrial Distribution industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.21
-
-
Debt per share
$15.48
EBITDA per share
$9.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
SITE
P/E Ratio:
19.76
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.28
P/E ratio is 38.41% higher than main peers & is -23.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $148.51
SITE is -17.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.51
Price to sales ratio is -16.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.99
Price to free cash flow: 55.05
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
106.07%
Net income growth rate is -613.67% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
63.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
66.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
23.88
Interest coverage ratio is -77.03% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.68%
Annual debt growth is -78% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.44%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.671
Statistical significance of correlation:
SITE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.554
Stock price is 21.19% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.554
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Kurtosis
6.151
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.682
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SITE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.49%
Operating profit margin is 47.59% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.36%
Effective tax rate is -2.91% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is -7.34% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.94%
Return on assets (ROA) is 10.45% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.32
Current ratio is -6.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
28.2
Cash conversion cycle is -11.36% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.41%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
637.0K
Each employee generates 13% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
75.4K
Each employee generates 19% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
46.2K
Each employee generates 17% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 22.5K
Each employee generates 18028% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
179.2K
Each employee generates 18028% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SITE
TFI International Inc. (XNYS:TFII)
GXO LOGISTICS, INC. (XNYS:GXO)
DTE ENERGY UNT (XNYS:DTP)
OWENS CORNING (XNYS:OC)
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:KNX)
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNYS:WMS)
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:AFGE)
AQUA AMERICA UNT (XNYS:WTRU)
ITT INC. (XNYS:ITT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
3.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.35B
1.28B
-
-
938.80M
-
- 3000.00K
935.80M
-
18.00M
85.30M
429.80M
344.50M
263.30M
326.50M
63.20M
263.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.70M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 175700.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 39900.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 300.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 118300.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 7500.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 31500.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/3/22
2022
Q1
45.10M
-
45.10M
437.10M
853.70M
50.00M
1.39B
459.10M
325.90M
219.00M
-
2.70M
14.80M
1.02B
-
2.41B
390.30M
79.80M
1.60M
-
127.40M
597.50M
697.20M
6.20M
710.70M
-
1.31B
400.00K
529.80M
6.0M
-
April 3, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.29B
1.10B
2.41B
-
777.00M
731.9M
-
- 2000.00K
- 41000.00K
- 64300.00K
1.20M
-
-
213.70M
150.60M
100.00K
- 8600.00K
45.10M
53.70M
- 118300.00K
- 10000.00K
- 128300.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SITE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$151.73
$165.64
$180.82
$197.39
$215.48