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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sirius Xm Holdings Inc. (XNAS:SIRI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SIRI
Name:
SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:SIRI)
Sector:
258.00M
Industry:
Broadcasting
CEO:
Mr. James Meyer
Total Employees:
5,590
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 275.85% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC.(SIRI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BROADCASTING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.07
One Month Price Target:
$6.1
Six Month Price Target :
$6.26
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.05
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.81
This week:
$5.48
This month :
$4.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
23.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
3.89B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.18%
-13.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.29
$6.73
$4.85
$5.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.44
$5.58
$5.70
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SIRI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.21%
Comparison:
SIRI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -116.54% lower than the industry
& is -109.28% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SIRI
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.09%
Yearly returns:
11.39%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -90.75% below industry average
Classification:
SIRI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
SIRI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.11%
Weekly Volatility:
4.71%
Monthly Volatility:
9.43%
Yearly Volatility:
32.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.33%
Weekly VaR:
-9.67%
Monthly VaR:
-19.34%
How Much Can the price of
SIRI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.01%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.03
This translates to price declining to:
$2.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SIRI is a 36.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 16.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -30.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SIRI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.756
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.07
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.759
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.683
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.73
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.202
Beta is -21.47% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.203
Beta is -21.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.086
Alpha is -292484.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -545% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SIRI
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -15.61% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-7.74%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.24%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.24%
WACC is -56.79% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.27
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-6.59
Annual revenue growth rate is 100.76% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -32.30% lower than the Broadcasting industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 46.14%
Equity growth rate per share is -35.07% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.61
EBITDA per share
$0.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
SIRI
P/E Ratio:
19.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
45.85
P/E ratio is -57.73% lower than main peers & is 44.33% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $4.56
SIRI is 32.97% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.68
Price to sales ratio is 13.47% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-6.59
Price to free cash flow: 14.84
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
22.74%
Net income growth rate is 193.66% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 76.42%
Dividend yeild: 5.09%
Previous Dividend: $0.02
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.02
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Expected next dividend best case: $0.08
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 100.43%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.02
2021-11-04--$0.02
2021-05-06--$0.02
2022-02-10--$0.25
2021-08-05--$0.02
2021-02-09--$0.02
Dividend growth rate is 758.11% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-283.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-283.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
100.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
99.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 45.91% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.63
Interest coverage ratio is 52.25% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.08%
Annual debt growth is -82% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.647
Statistical significance of correlation:
SIRI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.52
Stock price is 24.52% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.52
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.038
Kurtosis
6.944
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.553
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SIRI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.74%
Operating profit margin is 356.89% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.95%
Effective tax rate is -82.40% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-39.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1391.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is 323.00% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-781.8x
Current Ratio:
0.37
Current ratio is -77.49% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-80.2
Cash conversion cycle is -333.73% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates 73% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
497.0K
Each employee generates 92% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
251.2K
Each employee generates 180% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
46.2K
Each employee generates 152% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates 152% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 0.76%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -98.93% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SIRI
ROKU, INC. (XNAS:ROKU)
PARAMOUNT GLOBAL (XNAS:PARAA)
PARAMOUNT GLOBAL (XNAS:PARA)
LIBERTY BROADBAND CORPORATION (XNAS:LBRDK)
FOX CORPORATION (XNAS:FOXA)
FOX CORPORATION (XNAS:FOXA)
WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP. (XNAS:WMG)
Yandex NV (XNAS:YNDX)
TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:TTWO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.82B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.43B
4.39B
268.00M
516.00M
1.63B
1.11B
450.00M
2.35B
-
419.00M
583.00M
2.78B
2.27B
1.40B
1.78B
372.00M
1.40B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
147.00M
Differed Income Tax :
29.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
45.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 195000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
51.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
20.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
355.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 97000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 45000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
76.00M
-
76.00M
650.00M
-
330.00M
1.06B
1.80B
3.18B
3.17B
-
200.00M
757.00M
9.11B
-
10.16B
1.18B
52.00M
-
1.45B
139.00M
2.82B
10.18B
150.00M
10.93B
-
13.75B
4.00M
- 3612000.00K
23.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.78B
- 3587000.00K
10.16B
-
10.23B
10.2B
-
-
- 142000.00K
- 1000.00K
-
- 206000.00K
- 1073000.00K
952.00M
- 328000.00K
-
- 115000.00K
84.00M
199.00M
355.00M
- 97000.00K
258.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SIRI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.48
$11.18
$11.89
$12.65
$13.45