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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. (XNAS:SBGI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SBGI
Name:
SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SBGI)
Sector:
49.00M
Industry:
Broadcasting
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Ripley
Total Employees:
11,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -190.58% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP, INC.(SBGI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BROADCASTING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.56
One Month Price Target:
$22.72
Six Month Price Target :
$23.52
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.48
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.42
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.84
This week:
$18.72
This month :
$14.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.53B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
69.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.59%
-19.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.53
$26.90
$14.59
$18.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.94
$19.40
$20.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SBGI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.29%
Comparison:
SBGI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -76.94% lower than the industry
& is -87.06% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SBGI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.40%
Yearly returns:
11.39%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -58.30% below industry average
Classification:
SBGI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
SBGI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.71%
Weekly Volatility:
8.30%
Monthly Volatility:
16.61%
Yearly Volatility:
57.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -15.20% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.61%
Weekly VaR:
-17.01%
Monthly VaR:
-34.02%
How Much Can the price of
SBGI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.82
This translates to price declining to:
$3.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SBGI is a 140.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 105.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.04% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SBGI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.27
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.077
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.524
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.219
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.56
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.872
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.357
Beta is -6.52% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.203
Beta is 5.45% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.071
Alpha is -242222.18% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -451% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SBGI
Equity cost of capital:
0.118
Equity cost of capital is 3.94% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
12.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
10.03%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
10.03%
WACC is 43.28% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$84.62
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.24
Annual revenue growth rate is 432.81% above the industry average
EPS:
$30.50
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.14
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 9.77%
Equity growth rate per share is -86.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$64.78
EBITDA per share
$83.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
SBGI
P/E Ratio:
0.66
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
168.07
P/E ratio is -99.61% lower than main peers & is -95.09% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $409.50
SBGI is -94.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $627.43
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.88
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.27
Price to sales ratio is -88.71% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.24
Price to free cash flow: 3.16
Price to free cash flow ratio is -83.79% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-265.50%
Net income growth rate is -3528.09% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.87%
Dividend yeild: 3.99%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $0.90
Expected next dividend best case: $0.27
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.25
2021-11-30--$0.20
2021-05-28--$0.20
2022-03-04--$0.25
2021-08-31--$0.20
2021-03-09--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -78.64% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
591.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
530.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
67.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
60.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -1.02% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.07
Interest coverage ratio is 131.17% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-91.70%
Annual debt growth is -644% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.15%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.367
Statistical significance of correlation:
SBGI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.52
Stock price is -29.34% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.52
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.001
Kurtosis
4.643
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.18
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SBGI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
129%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
59.65%
Operating profit margin is 958.97% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
129%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.77%
Effective tax rate is -84.23% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
285.62%
Return on equity (ROE) is 9324.53% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
32.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is 904.25% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.1x
Current Ratio:
2.43
Current ratio is 46.29% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
74.1
Cash conversion cycle is 115.93% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.33%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
514.0K
Each employee generates -44% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
509.5K
Each employee generates 97% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
190.0K
Each employee generates 112% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.3K
Each employee generates -77% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
451.7K
Each employee generates -77% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SBGI
InterDigital, Inc. (XNAS:IDCC)
CARDLYTICS, INC. (XNAS:CDLX)
MAGNITE, INC. (XNAS:MGNI)
TECHTARGET, INC. (XNAS:TTGT)
Hello Group Inc. (XNAS:MOMO)
Cimpress plc (XNAS:CMPR)
Scor SE (XPAR:SCR)
AMC NETWORKS INC. (XNAS:AMCX)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.91B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.04B
1.87B
-
1.07B
1.07B
-
694.00M
1.77B
-
582.00M
2.57B
5.86B
3.53B
2.19B
2.79B
523.00M
2.19B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
447.00M
Differed Income Tax :
689.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
29.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 114000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
16.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 3000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3597000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
70.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 21000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 315000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 5000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
521.00M
-
521.00M
776.00M
-
170.00M
1.47B
867.00M
2.09B
1.23B
640.00M
-
375.00M
5.20B
-
6.66B
-
58.00M
-
-
545.00M
603.00M
4.53B
436.00M
5.36B
-
5.96B
1.00M
109.00M
- 2000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.80B
765.00M
6.72B
-
4.58B
4.1B
-
75.00M
- 266000.00K
- 7000.00K
-
- 68000.00K
- 19000.00K
- 8000.00K
- 102000.00K
-
- 298000.00K
521.00M
819.00M
70.00M
- 21000.00K
49.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SBGI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.60
$1,412.82
$1,533.28
$1,664.00
$1,805.87