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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Simon Property Group, Inc. (XNYS:SPG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPG
Name:
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:SPG)
Sector:
637.22M
Industry:
REIT�Retail
CEO:
Mr. David Simon
Total Employees:
2,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -126.96% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC.(SPG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
100.53
One Month Price Target:
$101.37
Six Month Price Target :
$105.6
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$110.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$99.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$101.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$92.61
This week:
$82.81
This month :
$65.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
33.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
327.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.87%
-26.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$137.32
$120.55
$63.74
$80.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$115.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$111.51
$85.92
$89.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPG
Sharpe Ratio:
0.31%
Comparison:
SPG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -69.84% lower than the industry
& is -86.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPG
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.42%
Yearly returns:
8.74%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -42.59% below industry average
Classification:
SPG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.71
Statistical test of Returns:
SPG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.85%
Weekly Volatility:
8.61%
Monthly Volatility:
17.21%
Yearly Volatility:
59.62%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.88%
Weekly VaR:
-17.63%
Monthly VaR:
-35.25%
How Much Can the price of
SPG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$69.43
This translates to price declining to:
$15.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPG is a 148.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 113.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 30.04% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.981
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.388
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.182
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.969
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.05
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.909
Beta is 65.11% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.101
Beta is 36.34% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.084
Alpha is 330.83% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -536% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPG
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is 25.63% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.40%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.40%
WACC is -32.81% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.80
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.67
Annual revenue growth rate is 47.93% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.15%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -90.48% lower than the REIT�Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.01
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -21.47%
Equity growth rate per share is 2.54% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$76.89
EBITDA per share
$13.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPG
P/E Ratio:
15.68
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
44.62
P/E ratio is -64.86% lower than main peers & is -67.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $323.52
SPG is -68.93% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $56.79
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $44.52
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.36
Price to sales ratio is -33.71% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.67
Price to free cash flow: 11.15
Price to free cash flow ratio is -22.51% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-13.13%
Net income growth rate is -1.34% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 24.35%
Dividend yeild: 6.47%
Previous Dividend: $1.70
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.70
Previous Dividend: $6.50
Expected next dividend best case: $1.95
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.45
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.57
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -1.02%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$1.70
2021-12-09--$1.65
2021-07-01--$1.40
2022-03-09--$1.65
2021-09-08--$1.50
2021-04-08--$1.30
Dividend growth rate is -106.44% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
773.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
772.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
75.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
75.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 37.56% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.53
Interest coverage ratio is 84.60% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-51.68%
Annual debt growth is -4233% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.578
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.511
Stock price is 12.99% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.511
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.056
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.125
Kurtosis
13.556
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.114
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
326%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
46.96%
Operating profit margin is 52.90% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
326%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.16%
Effective tax rate is -14.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
68.48%
Return on equity (ROE) is 484.91% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.67%
Return on assets (ROA) is 124.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.0x
Current Ratio:
13.43
Current ratio is -68.09% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
65.6
Cash conversion cycle is -68.93% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 18.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.2M
Each employee generates -43% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates -44% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
929.0K
Each employee generates -26% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
265.5K
Each employee generates -53% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
503.6K
Each employee generates -53% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPG
SPG-PJ
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:DLR)
PUBLIC STORAGE (XNYS:PSA)
WELLTOWER INC. (XNYS:WELL)
CBRE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CBRE)
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:AVB)
EQUITY RESIDENTIAL (XNYS:EQR)
ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC. (XNYS:ARE)
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY (XNYS:WY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�42%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.17B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
962.43M
4.21B
-
31.60M
141.68M
110.08M
1.64B
1.78B
-
778.85M
1.14B
4.31B
2.43B
2.23B
2.65B
163.10M
2.23B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
324.12M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 20565.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
791.87M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
25.99M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
514.93M
-
514.93M
819.83M
-
37.90B
39.24B
501.91M
-
1.21B
-
-
- 501910.00K
1.21B
30.56B
33.45B
1.21B
504.68M
-
1.21B
-
2.92B
25.17B
1.07B
26.24B
-
29.16B
34.00K
- 5948261.00K
- 170094.0K
9.37B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.74B
3.26B
32.42B
-
25.67B
25.2B
-
- 125885.00K
- 99899.00K
- 2522273.00K
- 82.00K
-
- 543010.00K
2.35B
- 710977.00K
-
- 19007.00K
514.93M
533.94M
791.87M
- 154649.00K
637.22M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$111.22
$188.81
$207.85
$228.82
$251.89