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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Simmons First National Corporation (XNAS:SFNC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SFNC
Name:
SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:SFNC)
Sector:
53.37M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. George Makris
Total Employees:
2,877
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -375.02% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPORATION(SFNC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.49
One Month Price Target:
$23.6
Six Month Price Target :
$24.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.85
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.13
This week:
$20.46
This month :
$17.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.01B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
128.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.84%
-13.62%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.78
$26.91
$17.20
$20.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.97
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.36
$21.00
$21.62
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SFNC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.60%
Comparison:
SFNC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -51.32% lower than the industry
& is -73.76% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SFNC
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.51%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -43.40% below industry average
Classification:
SFNC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
SFNC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.82%
Weekly Volatility:
6.31%
Monthly Volatility:
12.63%
Yearly Volatility:
43.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.15% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.77%
Weekly VaR:
-12.91%
Monthly VaR:
-25.82%
How Much Can the price of
SFNC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-89.43%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.20
This translates to price declining to:
$2.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SFNC is a 82.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 56.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SFNC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.625
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.883
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.585
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.714
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.936
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.18
Beta is -26.90% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -10.50% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.15%
Sustainable growth rate is -32.58% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.029
Alpha is -348.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -183% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SFNC
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -7.11% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.23%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.35%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.35%
WACC is -24.65% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.02
Annual revenue growth rate is -113.58% below industry average
EPS:
$2.43
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -95.44% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.85
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 40.29%
Equity growth rate per share is 4.04% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$13.42
EBITDA per share
$3.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
SFNC
P/E Ratio:
12.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
51.45
P/E ratio is -76.63% lower than main peers & is -3.09% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $30.15
SFNC is -22.10% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.87
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.33
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.95
Price to sales ratio is -7.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.02
Price to free cash flow: 12.68
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.66%
Net income growth rate is -77.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.95%
Dividend yeild: 3.15%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.74
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.77%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.19
2021-12-14--$0.18
2021-06-14--$0.18
2022-03-14--$0.19
2021-09-14--$0.18
2021-03-12--$0.18
Dividend growth rate is -92.49% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
58.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.10%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.03%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.17
Interest coverage ratio is 643.87% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.16%
Annual debt growth is -152% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.62
Statistical significance of correlation:
SFNC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 23.82% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
6.152
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.676
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SFNC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.54%
Effective tax rate is -13.98% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is -23.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -52.35% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 28.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.47%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
265.2K
Each employee generates -30% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
156.2K
Each employee generates -31% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
93.4K
Each employee generates -34% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.6K
Each employee generates -78% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.5M
Each employee generates -78% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SFNC
HAMILTON LANE INCORPORATED (XNAS:HLNE)
FOCUS FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC. (XNAS:FOCS)
BULL HORN HOLDINGS UNT (XNAS:BHSEU)
WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WSFS)
BRP GROUP, INC. (XNAS:BRP)
AMERIS BANCORP (XNAS:ABCB)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPP)
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:NAVI)
FIRSTCASH HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:FCFS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
763.01M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
319.46M
344.68M
25.22M
-
-
663.35M
72.90M
46.53M
449.43M
-
268.83M
330.00M
61.17M
268.83M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.64M
Differed Income Tax :
9.11M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.94M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11539.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.63M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 17716.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
60.53M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7156.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 206997.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.69B
6.64B
8.33B
69.36M
-
-
-
486.53M
1.15B
102.75M
8.20B
-
-
9.93B
34.42B
24.48B
209.93M
-
-
-
-
-
1.72B
-
1.72B
23.24B
21.52B
1.13M
1.14B
- 326961.0K
2.15B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.96B
24.48B
14.84B
1.72B
32.6M
212.45M
- 19175.00K
- 20876.00K
- 730.00K
-
- 16055.00K
- 21375.00K
34.88M
- 3285.00K
-
36.36M
1.69B
1.65B
60.53M
- 7156.00K
53.37M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SFNC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.97
$57.45
$60.78
$64.31
$68.03