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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Silk Road Medical, Inc. (XNAS:SILK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SILK
Name:
SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:SILK)
Sector:
- 16797.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Ms. Erica Rogers
Total Employees:
352
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 11.46% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC.(SILK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.61
One Month Price Target:
$39.94
Six Month Price Target :
$41.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.5
This week:
$32.65
This month :
$25.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.24M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.25%
-17.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.04
$47.40
$25.18
$31.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.24
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.82
$33.97
$35.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SILK
Sharpe Ratio:
2.20%
Comparison:
SILK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 45.19% higher than the industry
& is -3.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SILK
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.88%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 46.82% above industry average
Classification:
SILK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
SILK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.87%
Weekly Volatility:
8.65%
Monthly Volatility:
17.31%
Yearly Volatility:
59.95%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.47% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.85%
Weekly VaR:
-17.56%
Monthly VaR:
-35.12%
How Much Can the price of
SILK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$27.73
This translates to price declining to:
$5.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SILK is a 147.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 112.37% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.26% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SILK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.915
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.294
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.664
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.873
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.252
Beta is 20.08% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 41.14% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.091
Alpha is 85.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 579% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SILK
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is 28.73% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.96%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.96%
WACC is 30.26% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
20.62
Annual revenue growth rate is -72.14% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.60
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-14.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -222.64% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.10
EBITDA per share
-$1.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
SILK
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
38.08
-
-
SILK is -110.16% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
12.99
Price to sales ratio is 39.57% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
20.62
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-8.08%
Net income growth rate is -108.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
57.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-64.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-30.32%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -29.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-20.31
Interest coverage ratio is -252.25% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.22%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.34
Statistical significance of correlation:
SILK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -27.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.112
Kurtosis
3.002
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.151
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SILK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
294%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-49.57%
Operating profit margin is 190.32% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
294%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-82.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is 740.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-39.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1057.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
4.33
Current ratio is -33.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
71.6
Cash conversion cycle is 28.29% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 26.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-8.92%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
305.2K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 145.2K
Each employee generates -2420% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 158.5K
Each employee generates 433% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 47.7K
Each employee generates 236% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
43.3K
Each employee generates 236% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 27.45%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -21034.33% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SILK
GenMark Diagnostics, Inc. (XLON:0IUT)
FPRX
ATEA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AVIR)
CEREVEL THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CERE)
IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IRWD)
Genetron Holdings Limited (XNAS:GTH)
LUMINEX RESOURCES CORP. (OTCM:LUMIF)
CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:CYTK)
KURA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:KURA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
107.44M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
28.48M
78.96M
29.75M
-
102.47M
-
-
132.22M
116.00K
2.52M
2.18M
- 51096.00K
- 53259.00K
- 55796.00K
- 55796.00K
-
- 55796.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
662.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.98M
Change in Working Capital :
- 3831.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2038.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
145.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 14725.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2072.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
93.60M
-
93.60M
13.88M
17.73M
2.56M
127.77M
9.87M
-
-
-
-
5.37M
15.23M
-
143.00M
2.93M
11.35M
-
522.00K
14.70M
29.50M
38.90M
6.89M
45.79M
-
75.29M
35.00K
- 305381.00K
-
373.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
160.70M
67.71M
143.00M
-
50.25M
- 43353.0K
-
-
- 2072.00K
-
168.00K
-
-
-
168.00K
-
- 16629.00K
93.83M
110.46M
- 14725.00K
- 2072.00K
- 16797.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SILK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.83
$30.63
$33.72
$37.13
$40.87