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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Silgan Holdings Inc. (XNYS:SLGN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SLGN
Name:
SILGAN HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:SLGN)
Sector:
- 335892.00K
Industry:
Packaging & Containers
CEO:
Mr. Anthony Allott
Total Employees:
15,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.13% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SILGAN HOLDINGS INC.(SLGN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGING & CONTAINERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.06
One Month Price Target:
$45.25
Six Month Price Target :
$46.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$44.97
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.62
This week:
$41.83
This month :
$38.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.97B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
110.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
7.79%
-6.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.76
$48.64
$38.36
$41.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$47.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.96
$42.48
$43.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SLGN
Sharpe Ratio:
3.81%
Comparison:
SLGN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 143.30% higher than the industry
& ratio is 67.07% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SLGN
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.39%
Yearly returns:
11.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 45.79% above industry average
Classification:
SLGN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
SLGN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.60%
Weekly Volatility:
3.57%
Monthly Volatility:
7.13%
Yearly Volatility:
24.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.94% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.21%
Weekly VaR:
-7.17%
Monthly VaR:
-14.34%
How Much Can the price of
SLGN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-12%
Worst case (decline):
-49.67%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.71
This translates to price declining to:
$22.68
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SLGN is a 1.20% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -13.30% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -33.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SLGN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.75
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.576
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.815
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.286
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.316
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.378
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.23
Beta is -38.95% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.004
Beta is -25.17% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
28.84%
Sustainable growth rate is -23.24% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.084
Alpha is 487.49% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 535% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SLGN
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -17.26% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.79%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.21%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.21%
WACC is -22.59% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$53.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.03
-
EPS:
$3.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.67%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 146.19% higher than the Packaging & Containers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.04
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 40.47%
Equity growth rate per share is 241.08% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$31.26
EBITDA per share
$7.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
SLGN
P/E Ratio:
13.59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
42.76
P/E ratio is -68.21% lower than main peers & is -30.87% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $65.48
SLGN is -31.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.55
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.53
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.84
Price to sales ratio is -32.23% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.03
Price to free cash flow: 22.05
Price to free cash flow ratio is -87.31% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.05%
Dividend yeild: 1.33%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.60
Expected next dividend best case: $0.17
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.15
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.16
2021-11-30--$0.14
2021-05-28--$0.14
2022-03-16--$0.16
2021-08-31--$0.14
2021-03-16--$0.14
Dividend growth rate is -48.21% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
210.33%
Net debt to equity ratio:
227.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
44.69%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.31%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.63
Interest coverage ratio is 35.76% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
16.67%
Annual debt growth is -300% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.445
Statistical significance of correlation:
SLGN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is -19.97% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.009
Kurtosis
3.337
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.159
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SLGN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.73%
Operating profit margin is 47.70% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.72%
Effective tax rate is -37.08% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.63%
Return on equity (ROE) is -55.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is -7.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
1.33
Current ratio is -15.53% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-26.1
Cash conversion cycle is -141.09% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 17.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.32%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
377.0K
Each employee generates -88% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
54.5K
Each employee generates -91% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
23.8K
Each employee generates -91% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 21.5K
Each employee generates 30% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
348.0K
Each employee generates 30% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SLGN
PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:PZZA)
MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED (XNAS:MLCO)
WINGSTOP INC. (XNAS:WING)
NIKOLA CORPORATION (XNAS:NKLA)
Diversey Holdings, Ltd. (XNAS:DSEY)
DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DRVN)
LESLIE'S, INC. (XNAS:LESL)
THE WENDY'S COMPANY (XNAS:WEN)
TRIPADVISOR, INC. (XNAS:TRIP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�42%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.88B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.95B
930.40M
-
-
380.74M
-
-
380.74M
-
111.35M
258.56M
849.54M
572.11M
370.68M
479.63M
108.96M
370.68M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
69.07M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.88M
Change in Working Capital :
- 429082.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 141113.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 12660.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.86M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 267401.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1333.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
259.56M
-
259.56M
852.88M
1.02B
150.65M
2.28B
1.98B
2.02B
817.45M
-
-
607.17M
5.43B
-
7.71B
850.53M
539.13M
-
-
327.29M
1.72B
3.45B
475.74M
4.36B
-
6.07B
1.75M
2.76B
- 244642.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.33B
1.64B
7.71B
-
3.98B
3.7B
-
- 68694.00K
- 70027.00K
- 324408.00K
-
- 11474.00K
- 18722.00K
318.76M
- 35843.00K
1.40M
- 371875.00K
259.56M
631.44M
- 267401.00K
- 68491.00K
- 335892.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SLGN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.57
$49.97
$52.49
$55.14
$57.92