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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Signature Bank (XNAS:SBNY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SBNY
Name:
Signature Bank (XNAS:SBNY)
Sector:
- 179578.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Joseph DePaolo
Total Employees:
1,854
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SIGNATURE BANK(SBNY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
171.28
One Month Price Target:
$172.93
Six Month Price Target :
$181.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$191.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$170.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$172.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$159.03
This week:
$143.89
This month :
$116.5
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
62.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.88%
-15.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$228.10
$201.88
$114.46
$140.68
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$193.34
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$187.74
$149.15
$154.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SBNY
Sharpe Ratio:
2.64%
Comparison:
SBNY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 114.60% higher than the industry
& ratio is 15.66% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SBNY
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.51%
Monthly returns:
2.04%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 124.27% above industry average
Classification:
SBNY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
SBNY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.53%
Weekly Volatility:
7.90%
Monthly Volatility:
15.80%
Yearly Volatility:
54.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.94% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.15%
Weekly VaR:
-15.99%
Monthly VaR:
-31.98%
How Much Can the price of
SBNY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$124.84
This translates to price declining to:
$25.69
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SBNY is a 125.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 93.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.64% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SBNY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.72
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.17
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.654
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.324
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.004
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.869
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.328
Beta is 29.82% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 78.90% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.18%
Sustainable growth rate is 11.46% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.095
Alpha is 719.82% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 605% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SBNY
Equity cost of capital:
0.150
Equity cost of capital is 53.41% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.94%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.07%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.07%
WACC is 28.36% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$34.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.32
-
EPS:
$17.08
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.29%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -6.13% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$52.14
EBITDA per share
$27.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
SBNY
P/E Ratio:
10.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.04
P/E ratio is -44.42% lower than main peers & is -19.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $211.94
SBNY is -19.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.84
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.97
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.97
Price to sales ratio is 16.13% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.32
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 85.84% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.16%
Dividend yeild: 1.31%
Previous Dividend: $0.56
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.56
Previous Dividend: $2.24
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.56
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 18/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-28--$0.56
2021-10-28--$0.56
2021-04-30--$0.56
2022-01-27--$0.56
2021-07-29--$0.56
2021-01-29--$0.56
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
40.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-281.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.69%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-18.91%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.38% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.91
Interest coverage ratio is 612.54% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 37.15%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.613
Statistical significance of correlation:
SBNY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 22.35% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.083
Kurtosis
8.155
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.571
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SBNY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
24.78%
Effective tax rate is 14.99% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.05%
Return on equity (ROE) is 9.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.88%
Return on assets (ROA) is -62.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 17.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates 208% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
934.7K
Each employee generates 314% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
575.2K
Each employee generates 306% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 96.9K
Each employee generates -216% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -216% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SBNY
TRADEWEB MARKETS INC. (XNAS:TW)
CMLFU
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PFG)
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP (XNAS:FITBI)
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INCORPORATED (XNAS:HBAN)
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CINF)
GRAB HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:GRAB)
THE CARLYLE GROUP INC. (XNAS:CG)
NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION (XNAS:NTRS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�38%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.17B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
648.57M
648.57M
-
-
-
2.34B
293.43M
21.74M
1.73B
-
1.07B
1.42B
351.28M
1.07B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.64M
Differed Income Tax :
56.20M
Stock Based Compensation :
13.59M
Change in Working Capital :
- 384032.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 196779.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 166847.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12731.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 5925520.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
26.32B
19.69B
46.02B
337.61M
-
-
-
331.13M
-
-
26.24B
-
-
-
121.85B
121.85B
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.28B
-
3.28B
116.96B
113.67B
629.00K
4.59B
- 929246.0K
4.51B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
8.17B
121.85B
45.94B
3.28B
- 23043377.0K
907.66M
- 1578493.00K
- 6609087.00K
- 1939728.00K
-
-
- 44370.00K
5.46B
3.48B
-
- 3296384.00K
26.32B
29.62B
- 166847.00K
- 12731.00K
- 179578.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SBNY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$192.08
$282.08
$314.76
$351.23
$391.92