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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Si-Bone, Inc. (XNAS:SIBN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SIBN
Name:
SI-BONE, INC. (XNAS:SIBN)
Sector:
- 15786.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Dunn
Total Employees:
352
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 191.51% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SI-BONE, INC.(SIBN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.41
One Month Price Target:
$16.52
Six Month Price Target :
$17.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.18
This week:
$13.65
This month :
$10.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
556.77M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
34.31M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.82%
-21.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.13
$19.51
$10.69
$13.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.66
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.10
$14.15
$14.72
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SIBN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.17%
Comparison:
SIBN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.99% lower than the industry
& is -48.83% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SIBN
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.04%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -19.06% below industry average
Classification:
SIBN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
SIBN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.68%
Weekly Volatility:
8.23%
Monthly Volatility:
16.47%
Yearly Volatility:
57.04%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.04%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.51%
Weekly VaR:
-16.79%
Monthly VaR:
-33.59%
How Much Can the price of
SIBN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.63
This translates to price declining to:
$2.46
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SIBN is a 137.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 103.09% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.28% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SIBN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.801
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.132
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.966
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.641
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.609
Beta is -23.22% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 16.02% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.008
Alpha is -83.34% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 52% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SIBN
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is 11.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
10.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.44%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.44%
WACC is 40.32% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.6
Annual revenue growth rate is -116.41% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-81.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -802.76% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.13
EBITDA per share
-$1.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
SIBN
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
135.12
-
-
SIBN is -773.80% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.41
Price to sales ratio is -9.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.6
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-100.00%
Net income growth rate is -202.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
31.78%
Net debt to equity ratio:
10.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -43.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-12.67
Interest coverage ratio is -195.01% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.50%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.483
Statistical significance of correlation:
SIBN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 3.20% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.015
Kurtosis
3.722
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.3
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SIBN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
265%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-85.12%
Operating profit margin is 398.55% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
265%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-38.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is 293.72% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-26.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is 692.74% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
10.44
Current ratio is 61.42% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
45
Cash conversion cycle is -19.38% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-11.65%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
190.1K
Each employee generates -50% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 154.6K
Each employee generates -2571% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 134.3K
Each employee generates 352% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 44.8K
Each employee generates 216% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
44.3K
Each employee generates 216% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 31.53%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -24142.02% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SIBN
Kinnate Biopharma Inc (XNAS:KNTE)
CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CLDX)
PROTHENA CORPORATION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:PRTA)
Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc. (XNAS:MNMD)
MANNKIND CORPORATION (XNAS:MNKD)
BIOLIFE SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:BLFS)
MERSANA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MRSN)
RENALYTIX PLC (XNAS:RNLX)
QUINCE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:QNCX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
66.92M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.84M
59.08M
10.02M
19.88M
124.84M
98.57M
- 13.00K
102.12M
198.00K
4.29M
2.46M
- 54419.00K
- 56963.00K
- 47263.00K
- 47263.00K
-
- 47263.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
713.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.51M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2648.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.60M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
326.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 13512.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2274.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 45334.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
27.33M
103.40M
130.73M
12.68M
14.71M
3.14M
161.26M
15.19M
-
-
-
-
395.00K
15.59M
-
176.85M
5.00M
1.29M
-
-
9.17M
15.45M
38.91M
45.00K
38.96M
-
54.41M
3.00K
- 313259.00K
104.0K
435.59M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
109.95M
122.44M
176.85M
-
40.20M
12.9M
25.00M
-
- 22608.00K
-
-
-
-
169.00K
169.00K
- 139.00K
- 36090.00K
27.33M
63.42M
- 13512.00K
- 2274.00K
- 15786.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SIBN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.60
$17.98
$19.47
$21.08
$22.83