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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (XNAS:SCVL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SCVL
Name:
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC. (XNAS:SCVL)
Sector:
72.44M
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Mr. Clifton Sifford
Total Employees:
2,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -259.01% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SHOE CARNIVAL, INC.(SCVL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.06
One Month Price Target:
$23.23
Six Month Price Target :
$24.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.1
This week:
$18.68
This month :
$14.3
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
656.93M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.12%
-25.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.14
$27.95
$13.98
$18.17
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.69
$19.52
$20.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SCVL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.57%
Comparison:
SCVL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 271.07% higher than the industry
& ratio is 12.86% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SCVL
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.58%
Monthly returns:
2.33%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 215.89% above industry average
Classification:
SCVL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.6
Statistical test of Returns:
SCVL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.19%
Weekly Volatility:
9.37%
Monthly Volatility:
18.74%
Yearly Volatility:
64.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -92.32% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.49%
Weekly VaR:
-18.99%
Monthly VaR:
-37.97%
How Much Can the price of
SCVL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.63
This translates to price declining to:
$3.46
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SCVL is a 168.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 129.59% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.00% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SCVL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.734
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.038
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.965
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.706
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.108
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.567
Beta is -13.99% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is -1.38% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
36.10%
Sustainable growth rate is -11.58% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.156
Alpha is -528.25% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 994% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SCVL
Equity cost of capital:
0.124
Equity cost of capital is -1.03% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.87%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.16%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.16%
WACC is 25.75% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$47.78
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.82
Annual revenue growth rate is 20.71% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.85
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
62.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 199.70% higher than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.43
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 22.71%
Equity growth rate per share is -179.38% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.71
EBITDA per share
$7.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
SCVL
P/E Ratio:
5.3
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
48.63
P/E ratio is -89.10% lower than main peers & is -61.44% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $66.67
SCVL is -65.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $71.49
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.48
Price to sales ratio is -44.33% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.82
Price to free cash flow: 9.49
Price to free cash flow ratio is -71.70% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-2.61%
Net income growth rate is -95.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.48%
Dividend yeild: 1.60%
Previous Dividend: $0.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.09
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Expected next dividend best case: $0.11
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.07
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.45%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 14/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 16/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-01--$0.09
2021-10-01--$0.07
2021-04-01--$0.07
2022-01-07--$0.07
2021-07-02--$0.07
2021-01-08--$0.05
Dividend growth rate is -113.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
52.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
24.69%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
450.66
Interest coverage ratio is 98.72% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.46%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.405
Statistical significance of correlation:
SCVL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is -10.51% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.006
Kurtosis
8.84
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.654
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SCVL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
154%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.05%
Operating profit margin is 89.44% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
154%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.13%
Effective tax rate is -4.69% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
39.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is -4.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
18.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is 76.59% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.31
Current ratio is 32.53% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4.7
Cash conversion cycle is -90.14% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.89%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
507.5K
Each employee generates 29% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
78.7K
Each employee generates 60% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
53.3K
Each employee generates 109% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
27.9K
Each employee generates 320% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
110.6K
Each employee generates 320% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SCVL
ZUMIEZ INC. (XNAS:ZUMZ)
WW International, Inc. (XNAS:WW)
THE REALREAL, INC. (XNAS:REAL)
AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:AMWD)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNI)
PLBY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PLBY)
BAOZUN INC. (XNAS:BZUN)
DENNY'S CORPORATION (XNAS:DENN)
THREDUP INC. (XNAS:TDUP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.32B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
809.97M
509.49M
-
-
324.06M
-
-
324.06M
52.00K
454.00K
19.11M
204.60M
185.44M
138.54M
185.03M
46.50M
138.54M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.32M
Differed Income Tax :
670.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.23M
Change in Working Capital :
13.69M
Accounts Receivables:
- 381.00K
Other Working Capital:
4.60M
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.38M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
76.52M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4083.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
174.64M
-
174.64M
7.48M
268.63M
11.90M
462.65M
269.61M
-
-
-
4.97M
12.87M
287.44M
-
750.09M
102.41M
42.90M
-
-
55.01M
200.31M
185.21M
14.30M
199.50M
-
399.81M
205.00K
447.88M
-
- 97805.00K
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.13B
350.28M
750.09M
-
228.10M
53.5M
-
-
- 4083.00K
-
64.00K
-
- 2054.00K
- 2336.00K
- 4326.00K
-
68.11M
174.64M
106.53M
76.52M
- 4083.00K
72.44M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SCVL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.28
$133.27
$145.34
$158.51
$172.86