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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Shockwave Medical, Inc. (XNAS:SWAV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SWAV
Name:
SHOCKWAVE MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:SWAV)
Sector:
- 1349.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Douglas Godshall
Total Employees:
657
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -246.13% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SHOCKWAVE MEDICAL, INC.(SWAV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
292.19
One Month Price Target:
$293.93
Six Month Price Target :
$302.66
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$313.13
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$291.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$295.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$269.07
This week:
$240.49
This month :
$188.79
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.90B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.33%
-17.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$399.18
$348.13
$185.20
$236.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$331.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$320.62
$252.73
$263.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SWAV
Sharpe Ratio:
8.82%
Comparison:
SWAV, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 482.09% higher than the industry
& ratio is 286.81% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SWAV
Daily returns:
0.36%
Weekly returns:
1.82%
Monthly returns:
7.28%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 469.15% above industry average
Classification:
SWAV, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
SWAV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.03%
Weekly Volatility:
9.01%
Monthly Volatility:
18.02%
Yearly Volatility:
62.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.84% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.91%
Weekly VaR:
-17.69%
Monthly VaR:
-35.39%
How Much Can the price of
SWAV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$213.00
This translates to price declining to:
$43.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SWAV is a 149.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 113.98% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 28.38% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SWAV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.07
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.76
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.075
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.925
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.247
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.928
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.919
Beta is 16.02% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 0.13% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.770
Alpha is 1466.12% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4899% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SWAV
Equity cost of capital:
0.105
Equity cost of capital is 0.09% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.68%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.68%
WACC is 19.22% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
39.2
Annual revenue growth rate is 179.22% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-50.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -535.83% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.61
-
-
Debt per share
$1.15
EBITDA per share
$1.02
Valuation Analysis Today of
SWAV
P/E Ratio:
197.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
329.94
P/E ratio is -40.25% lower than main peers & is -19.05% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $192.40
SWAV is 51.87% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
35.12
Price to sales ratio is 277.32% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
39.2
Price to free cash flow: 477.99
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-86.88%
Net income growth rate is -189.45% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.72%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-4.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -71.32% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
33.9
Interest coverage ratio is 154.17% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
304.67%
Annual debt growth is 26% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.534
Statistical significance of correlation:
SWAV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 14.21% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
3.627
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.19
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SWAV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
337%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.70%
Operating profit margin is -162.68% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
337%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.54%
Effective tax rate is -97.19% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -210.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.78%
Return on assets (ROA) is -330.81% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
6.07
Current ratio is -6.06% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
120
Cash conversion cycle is 115.03% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
32.81%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
454.9K
Each employee generates 21% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
55.8K
Each employee generates 792% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
44.1K
Each employee generates -248% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.1K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
95.3K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 36.88%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -28224.81% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SWAV
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IONS)
QUIDELORTHO CORPORATION (XNAS:QDEL)
KODIAK SCIENCES INC. (XNAS:KOD)
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM)
Galapagos NV (XNAS:GLPG)
ALLAKOS INC. (XNAS:ALLK)
PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC. (XNAS:PACB)
ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:ADPT)
NEOGENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:NEO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
298.88M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
46.44M
252.44M
57.29M
39.91M
163.17M
123.26M
-
220.45M
-
1.08M
6.13M
36.65M
31.99M
28.99M
29.44M
454.00K
28.99M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.72M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
9.51M
Change in Working Capital :
- 24224.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 10407.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
410.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.94M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3286.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 42128.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
66.25M
134.88M
201.13M
47.84M
53.37M
7.57M
309.91M
54.62M
-
-
5.94M
-
2.06M
62.61M
-
372.52M
8.47M
9.54M
-
-
33.02M
51.03M
41.39M
-
53.67M
-
104.70M
36.00K
- 238288.00K
- 1017.0K
507.09M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
266.89M
267.82M
372.52M
140.82M
50.94M
- 15314.0K
18.00M
-
- 27414.00K
-
-
-
-
2.52M
2.52M
-
- 22957.00K
67.92M
90.87M
1.94M
- 3286.00K
- 1349.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SWAV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$247.26
$264.98
$283.97
$304.31
$326.12