_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Servisfirst Bancshares, Inc. (XNYS:SFBS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SFBS
Name:
SERVISFIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:SFBS)
Sector:
69.27M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Broughton
Total Employees:
502
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1060.76% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SERVISFIRST BANCSHARES, INC.(SFBS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
84.22
One Month Price Target:
$84.7
Six Month Price Target :
$87.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$89.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$83.97
Price Upper limit ($) :
$84.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$79.74
This week:
$74.2
This month :
$64.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
54.31M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.15%
-13.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$104.98
$95.25
$63.46
$73.19
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$92.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$90.00
$76.34
$78.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SFBS
Sharpe Ratio:
5.50%
Comparison:
SFBS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 347.93% higher than the industry
& ratio is 141.42% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SFBS
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.78%
Monthly returns:
3.11%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 242.19% above industry average
Classification:
SFBS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.06
Statistical test of Returns:
SFBS has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.67%
Weekly Volatility:
5.96%
Monthly Volatility:
11.92%
Yearly Volatility:
41.31%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.75%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.32%
Weekly VaR:
-11.90%
Monthly VaR:
-23.79%
How Much Can the price of
SFBS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-82.42%
This translates to price declining to:
$68.01
This translates to price declining to:
$14.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SFBS is a 67.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SFBS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.01
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.905
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.28
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.97
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.727
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.944
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.179
Beta is -13.95% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 5.24% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.91%
Sustainable growth rate is 63.32% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.272
Alpha is 2247.90% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1734% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SFBS
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is 3.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.66%
Before-tax cost of debt:
48.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
38.13%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
38.13%
WACC is -11.09% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.71
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.9
Annual revenue growth rate is 44.96% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.43
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.04%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -8.16% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.81
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 58.28%
Equity growth rate per share is 50.50% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$1.19
EBITDA per share
$5.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
SFBS
P/E Ratio:
20.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
113.43
P/E ratio is -82.09% lower than main peers & is 63.69% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $42.56
SFBS is 97.88% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.28
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.29
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.93
Price to sales ratio is 155.58% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.9
Price to free cash flow: 17.52
Price to free cash flow ratio is -21.85% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
49.28%
Net income growth rate is -10.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.21%
Dividend yeild: 1.06%
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.23
Previous Dividend: $0.89
Expected next dividend best case: $0.25
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.66%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/06/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.23
2021-12-30--$0.23
2021-06-30--$0.20
2022-03-31--$0.23
2021-09-30--$0.20
2021-03-31--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -88.71% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-286.06%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-21.87%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.46
Interest coverage ratio is 1041.77% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.06%
Annual debt growth is -120% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.634
Statistical significance of correlation:
SFBS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 26.71% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.038
Kurtosis
5.495
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.193
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SFBS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.53%
Operating profit margin is -95.73% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.73%
Effective tax rate is -17.73% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is 52.92% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is -39.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.37%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
833.6K
Each employee generates 120% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
588.8K
Each employee generates 161% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
426.1K
Each employee generates 201% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
138.0K
Each employee generates 66% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.4M
Each employee generates 66% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SFBS
360 DigiTech, Inc. (XNAS:QFIN)
INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)
TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:TCBI)
FOCUS FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC. (XNAS:FOCS)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPP)
GOHEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GOCO)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPO)
KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:KNSL)
GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE, INC. (XNAS:GSHD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
418.47M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
209.86M
-
101.02M
101.52M
-
- 35821.00K
19.67M
429.10M
31.24M
4.39M
295.60M
6.40M
213.89M
259.98M
46.08M
213.89M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.08M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5257.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
790.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 11392.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
888.11M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 21679.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
69.27M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 52500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.42B
784.67M
4.20B
-
-
- 3315312.00K
888.11M
59.91M
-
13.62M
1.62B
-
-
1.69B
16.14B
15.34B
-
-
-
-
-
-
64.71M
-
64.71M
14.23B
14.17B
54.00K
956.17M
- 10875.0K
227.13M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.17B
15.34B
2.40B
64.71M
- 3354040.0K
45.39M
- 711714.00K
- 718820.00K
-
-
-
- 443.00K
- 128709.00K
- 129152.00K
-
- 778707.00K
3.44B
4.22B
69.27M
-
69.27M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SFBS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$90.41
$196.08
$209.44
$223.71
$238.96