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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Service Properties Trust (XNAS:SVC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SVC
Name:
SERVICE PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:SVC)
Sector:
- 11983.00K
Industry:
REIT�Hotel & Motel
CEO:
Mr. John Murray
Total Employees:
0
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SERVICE PROPERTIES TRUST(SVC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HOTEL & MOTEL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.77
One Month Price Target:
$6.85
Six Month Price Target :
$7.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.02
This week:
$5.1
This month :
$3.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
165.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
50.6%
-27.6%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.24
$8.67
$3.30
$4.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.16
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.82
$5.38
$5.72
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SVC
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.95%
Comparison:
SVC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -792.61% lower than the industry
& is -141.88% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SVC
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.21%
Monthly returns:
-0.84%
Yearly returns:
1.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -660.87% below industry average
Classification:
SVC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.38
Statistical test of Returns:
SVC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.35%
Weekly Volatility:
11.96%
Monthly Volatility:
23.93%
Yearly Volatility:
82.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.03%
Weekly VaR:
-24.67%
Monthly VaR:
-49.33%
How Much Can the price of
SVC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-44%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.78
This translates to price declining to:
$1.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SVC is a 248.18% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 198.28% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 22.77% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SVC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.363
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.927
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.394
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.215
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.091
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.421
Beta is 46.34% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.76
Beta is 18.14% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.275
Alpha is 105.44% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1752% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SVC
Equity cost of capital:
0.174
Equity cost of capital is 14.38% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.02%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.02%
WACC is -16.39% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -23.81% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.85
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.59
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -98.10%
Equity growth rate per share is -1.27% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$37.22
EBITDA per share
$2.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
SVC
P/E Ratio:
3743.59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
76
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $4.35
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.13
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.69
Price to sales ratio is -76.52% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.78
Price to free cash flow: 11.44
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-392.57%
Net income growth rate is 73.89% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -0.35%
Dividend yeild: 0.59%
Previous Dividend: $0.01
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.01
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Expected next dividend best case: $0.19
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -9.81%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-22--$0.01
2021-10-22--$0.01
2021-04-23--$0.01
2022-01-21--$0.01
2021-07-23--$0.01
2021-01-22--$0.01
Dividend growth rate is -89.95% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
428.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
430.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
68.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
68.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 11.85% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.99
Interest coverage ratio is -152.30% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
15.05%
Annual debt growth is -217% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.504
Statistical significance of correlation:
SVC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is -9.26% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.107
Kurtosis
17.121
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.46
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SVC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
128%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-0.65%
Operating profit margin is -98.29% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
128%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.23%
Effective tax rate is -98.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-32.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is 118.61% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.21%
Return on assets (ROA) is 7.67% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.1x
Current Ratio:
1.02
Current ratio is -24.50% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SVC
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMT)
NEWMARK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NMRK)
UNITI GROUP INC. (XNAS:UNIT)
OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST (XNAS:OPI)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMTN)
NYMTP
NYMTO
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.11B
522.45M
-
52.77M
52.77M
-
480.22M
532.99M
880.00K
363.78M
465.71M
358.96M
- 10544.00K
- 469435.00K
- 471719.00K
- 1099.00K
- 469435.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
104.11M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 14253.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
17.98M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 11983.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
969.61M
61.97M
1.03B
44.43M
-
393.09M
1.47B
-
-
275.50M
112.87M
-
7.16B
7.55B
7.65B
9.02B
422.49M
1.00B
-
-
14.03M
1.44B
6.15B
-
6.15B
-
7.58B
1.65M
- 3121155.00K
783.0K
4.55B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.64B
1.43B
9.02B
174.85M
7.15B
6.2B
-
38.87M
38.87M
-
-
-
- 1651.00K
- 82.00K
- 1733.00K
-
25.15M
972.57M
947.42M
- 11983.00K
-
- 11983.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SVC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.74
$8.83
$10.06
$11.46
$13.07