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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Seeing Machines Limited (XLON:SEE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SEE
Name:
SEEING MACHINES LIMITED (XLON:SEE)
Sector:
- 18600.00K
Industry:
Packaging & Containers
CEO:
Mr. Edward Doheny
Total Employees:
213
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -0.15% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SEEING MACHINES LIMITED(SEE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGING & CONTAINERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.825
One Month Price Target:
$5.89
Six Month Price Target :
$6.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.79
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.32
This week:
$4.71
This month :
$3.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
241.31M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
4.15B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.02%
-25.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.15
$7.07
$3.50
$4.58
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.73
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.50
$4.92
$5.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SEE
Sharpe Ratio:
2.82%
Comparison:
SEE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 80.28% higher than the industry
& ratio is 23.79% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SEE
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.64%
Monthly returns:
2.57%
Yearly returns:
11.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 169.66% above industry average
Classification:
SEE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
SEE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.25%
Weekly Volatility:
9.50%
Monthly Volatility:
19.00%
Yearly Volatility:
65.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.60%
Weekly VaR:
-19.22%
Monthly VaR:
-38.44%
How Much Can the price of
SEE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.93
This translates to price declining to:
$0.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SEE is a 171.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 132.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 78.00% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SEE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.02
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.963
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.362
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.137
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
-0.125
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
-0.374
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.657
Beta is 21.68% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.004
Beta is 100.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
290.95%
Sustainable growth rate is 674.38% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.139
Alpha is 873.36% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 887% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SEE
Equity cost of capital:
0.170
Equity cost of capital is 69.21% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.39%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.39%
WACC is 29.36% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
127.05
Annual revenue growth rate is 98.41% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.62
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
23.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 157.74% higher than the Packaging & Containers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.92
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 14.05%
Equity growth rate per share is 18.43% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.90
EBITDA per share
$0.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
SEE
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.51
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $71.18
SEE is -91.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.08
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.26
Price to sales ratio is 241.51% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
127.05
Price to free cash flow: 1.99
Price to free cash flow ratio is -81.73% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
169.56%
Net income growth rate is -721.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.70%
Dividend yeild: 13.73%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.20
2021-12-02--$0.20
2021-06-03--$0.20
2022-03-10--$0.20
2021-09-02--$0.20
2021-03-04--$0.16
Dividend growth rate is -67.63% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1961.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1832.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
61.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
57.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -8.67% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.95
Interest coverage ratio is 23.71% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.68%
Annual debt growth is -80% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
-0.079
Statistical significance of correlation:
SEE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is -114.26% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.062
Kurtosis
8.62
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.187
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SEE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.90%
Operating profit margin is 156.54% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Effective Tax Rate:
30.05%
Effective tax rate is -16.78% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
286.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is 469.33% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.92%
Return on assets (ROA) is 71.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.6x
Current Ratio:
1.31
Current ratio is -16.55% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-27.5
Cash conversion cycle is -143.32% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
26.7M
Each employee generates 775% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
5.3M
Each employee generates 802% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.6M
Each employee generates 822% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 87.3K
Each employee generates 429% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
19.6M
Each employee generates 429% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SEE
Berry Global Group, Inc. (XNYS:BERY)
DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. (XNYS:DKS)
LEVI STRAUSS & CO. (XNYS:LEVI)
Capri Holdings Limited (XNYS:CPRI)
DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION (XNYS:DECK)
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:NCLH)
On Holding Ltd (XNYS:ONON)
AUTOLIV, INC. (XNYS:ALV)
LITHIA MOTORS, INC. (XNYS:LAD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�25%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.68B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.93B
1.76B
-
-
788.50M
-
38.50M
827.00M
4.00M
161.60M
186.20M
1.12B
960.50M
545.90M
764.80M
229.80M
545.90M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.30M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2300.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
17.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 189500.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 57100.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 23000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
28.40M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
48.40M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 2000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1300.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
278.20M
-
278.20M
775.40M
843.70M
49.70M
1.95B
1.32B
2.19B
150.90M
-
138.20M
370.90M
4.17B
-
6.12B
958.10M
31.50M
40.60M
-
493.30M
1.48B
3.74B
662.70M
4.44B
-
5.93B
23.30M
2.91B
- 926100.0K
- 1816100.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.75B
190.40M
6.12B
-
3.77B
3.5B
1.00M
- 67000.00K
- 69300.00K
- 2700.00K
-
- 200100.00K
- 31100.00K
- 28200.00K
- 262100.00K
200.00K
- 282800.00K
278.20M
561.00M
48.40M
- 67000.00K
- 18600.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SEE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.64
$16.78
$19.06
$21.64
$24.57