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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Seagen Inc. (XNAS:SGEN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SGEN
Name:
SEAGEN INC. (XNAS:SGEN)
Sector:
- 234209.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Clay Siegall
Total Employees:
2,675
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -22.05% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SEAGEN INC.(SGEN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
152.34
One Month Price Target:
$152.87
Six Month Price Target :
$155.52
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$158.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$151.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$153.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$144.03
This week:
$133.76
This month :
$115.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
27.48B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
184.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.23%
-13.28%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$190.87
$173.07
$113.81
$131.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$167.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$163.48
$137.35
$141.20
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SGEN
Sharpe Ratio:
2.70%
Comparison:
SGEN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 39.02% higher than the industry
& ratio is 18.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SGEN
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.63%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.27% below industry average
Classification:
SGEN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
SGEN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.69%
Weekly Volatility:
6.03%
Monthly Volatility:
12.05%
Yearly Volatility:
41.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -47.81% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.45%
Weekly VaR:
-12.19%
Monthly VaR:
-24.39%
How Much Can the price of
SGEN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-84.48%
This translates to price declining to:
$120.92
This translates to price declining to:
$23.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SGEN is a 72.12% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -43.32% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SGEN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.596
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.843
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.61
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.704
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.514
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.781
Beta is -20.48% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -46.06% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.122
Alpha is -13.98% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 777% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SGEN
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -32.91% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
9.37
Annual revenue growth rate is -81.15% below industry average
EPS:
-$3.77
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
56.79%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 469.02% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.29
EBITDA per share
-$3.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
SGEN
P/E Ratio:
53.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.79
P/E ratio is 100.03% higher than main peers & is -40.28% lower than the industry
-
SGEN is -145.03% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
16.84
Price to sales ratio is -58.43% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
9.37
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
161.92%
Net income growth rate is 129.41% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-6.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.48%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -174% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.411
Statistical significance of correlation:
SGEN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 20.98% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.054
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.085
Kurtosis
5.102
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.426
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SGEN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
320%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-41.51%
Operating profit margin is -90.32% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
320%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.00%
Effective tax rate is -100.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-23.00%
Return on equity (ROE) is -59.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-19.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -6.55% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.22
Current ratio is -35.57% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-44.3
Cash conversion cycle is -108.31% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.37%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
623.9K
Each employee generates -61% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 232.6K
Each employee generates -160% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 257.8K
Each employee generates -301% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 87.6K
Each employee generates -159% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
316.1K
Each employee generates -159% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 48.55%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1453.16% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SGEN
CERNER CORPORATION (XNAS:CERN)
Genmab A/S (XNAS:GMAB)
BEIGENE, LTD. (XNAS:BGNE)
HORIZON THERAPEUTICS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:HZNP)
BIOGEN INC. (XNAS:BIIB)
VIATRIS INC. (XNAS:VTRS)
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)
HOLOGIC, INC. (XNAS:HOLX)
ROYALTY PHARMA PLC (XNAS:RPRX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.67B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
335.06M
1.33B
1.30B
-
730.57M
-
-
2.03B
-
-
67.35M
- 622172.00K
- 692686.00K
- 689545.00K
- 689525.00K
20.00K
- 689545.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.05M
Differed Income Tax :
155.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
43.91M
Change in Working Capital :
- 147394.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 11753.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.96M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 216812.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 17397.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 655940.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
261.00M
1.69B
1.95B
401.01M
275.75M
143.41M
2.77B
269.32M
274.67M
254.90M
-
-
46.55M
845.44M
-
3.62B
87.23M
-
-
-
444.07M
531.29M
53.55M
33.38M
86.93M
-
618.23M
184.00K
- 1680533.00K
424.0K
4.68B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.36B
3.00B
3.62B
-
53.55M
- 207444.0K
700.00M
-
26.66M
-
-
-
-
26.66M
26.66M
- 353.00K
- 163838.00K
261.00M
424.83M
- 216812.00K
- 17397.00K
- 234209.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SGEN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$159.49
$20.93
$21.81
$22.72
$23.67