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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Seacoast Banking Corporation Of Florida (XNAS:SBCF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SBCF
Name:
SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FLORIDA (XNAS:SBCF)
Sector:
53.71M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Dennis Hudson
Total Employees:
989
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -187.44% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FLORIDA(SBCF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.28
One Month Price Target:
$32.48
Six Month Price Target :
$33.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.74
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.29
This week:
$27.83
This month :
$23.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.93B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
61.41M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.62%
-14.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.52
$37.28
$23.04
$27.28
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.99
$28.65
$29.57
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SBCF
Sharpe Ratio:
1.65%
Comparison:
SBCF, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 34.17% higher than the industry
& is -27.69% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SBCF
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.18%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 29.46% above industry average
Classification:
SBCF, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
SBCF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.03%
Weekly Volatility:
6.78%
Monthly Volatility:
13.57%
Yearly Volatility:
47.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.86%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.79% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.17%
Weekly VaR:
-13.80%
Monthly VaR:
-27.60%
How Much Can the price of
SBCF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.62
This translates to price declining to:
$4.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SBCF is a 94.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 66.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.21% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SBCF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.723
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.022
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.088
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.613
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.915
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.243
Beta is -8.83% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 17.61% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.23%
Sustainable growth rate is -9.86% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.032
Alpha is 176.86% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 204% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SBCF
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is 11.92% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.48%
Before-tax cost of debt:
10.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.94%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.94%
WACC is -5.18% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -70.30% below industry average
EPS:
$1.91
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -64.03% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.53
-
-
Debt per share
$1.17
EBITDA per share
$2.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
SBCF
P/E Ratio:
17.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.66
P/E ratio is 25.99% higher than main peers & is 38.66% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $23.70
SBCF is 36.20% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $53.02
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.71
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.59
Price to sales ratio is 30.81% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.46
Price to free cash flow: 12.77
Price to free cash flow ratio is -35.16% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
51.73%
Net income growth rate is -6.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.18%
Dividend yeild: 1.73%
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.56
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.14
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 7.69%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.17
2021-12-14--$0.13
2021-06-14--$0.13
2022-03-14--$0.13
2021-09-14--$0.13
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -67.36% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.29%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-85.29%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-10.61%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.5
Interest coverage ratio is 2373.26% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.39%
Annual debt growth is 24% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.513
Statistical significance of correlation:
SBCF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 2.43% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
5.457
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.394
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SBCF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.24%
Effective tax rate is -1.42% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is -31.23% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is -55.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
358.3K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
149.4K
Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
112.5K
Each employee generates -20% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
54.3K
Each employee generates -35% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.9M
Each employee generates -35% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SBCF
TRUSTMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:TRMK)
CORVEL CORPORATION (XNAS:CRVL)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)
B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)
NMI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:NMIH)
SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SASR)
VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
354.37M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
149.95M
154.54M
4.59M
-
-
293.15M
7.21M
- 718.00K
147.78M
-
111.27M
141.28M
30.01M
111.27M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.24M
Differed Income Tax :
866.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.42M
Change in Working Capital :
12.47M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
17.95M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
54.53M
Investments in PP&E:
- 825.00K
Net Acquisitions:
208.93M
Purchases of Investments:
- 379492.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.23B
1.71B
2.94B
-
-
-
-
74.62M
286.61M
21.55M
2.45B
-
-
2.84B
13.74B
10.90B
-
-
-
-
-
-
71.72M
-
71.72M
9.62B
9.55B
6.12M
371.19M
- 73034.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.36B
10.90B
4.16B
71.72M
- 1156774.0K
147.84M
- 154974.00K
- 178519.00K
-
-
-
- 7994.00K
616.77M
608.77M
-
484.79M
1.22B
737.73M
54.53M
- 825.00K
53.71M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SBCF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$37.09
$39.91
$42.95
$46.22
$49.74