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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Science Applications International Corporation (XNYS:SAIC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SAIC
Name:
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:SAIC)
Sector:
179.00M
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Ms. Nazzic Keene
Total Employees:
26,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -95.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION(SAIC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
91.88
One Month Price Target:
$92.24
Six Month Price Target :
$94.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$96.16
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$91.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$92.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$87.39
This week:
$81.84
This month :
$71.81
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.07B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
55.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.74%
-16.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.71
$103.15
$71.05
$80.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$100.04
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.00
$83.69
$85.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SAIC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.44%
Comparison:
SAIC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -20.27% lower than the industry
& is -36.61% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SAIC
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.22%
Monthly returns:
0.87%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -27.64% below industry average
Classification:
SAIC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
SAIC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.40%
Weekly Volatility:
5.37%
Monthly Volatility:
10.73%
Yearly Volatility:
37.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 0.99% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.89%
Weekly VaR:
-10.92%
Monthly VaR:
-21.85%
How Much Can the price of
SAIC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-75.68%
This translates to price declining to:
$74.59
This translates to price declining to:
$22.35
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SAIC is a 54.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 32.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.90% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SAIC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.69
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.697
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.985
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.294
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.729
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.89
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.279
Beta is -45.79% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -42.63% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.24%
Sustainable growth rate is -91.10% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.025
Alpha is -15.30% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 162% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SAIC
Equity cost of capital:
0.079
Equity cost of capital is -30.88% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.35%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.08%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.08%
WACC is -32.35% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$136.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -2.08% below industry average
EPS:
$4.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.71%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 333.72% higher than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.27
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 20.07%
Equity growth rate per share is -35.98% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$46.98
EBITDA per share
$10.85
Valuation Analysis Today of
SAIC
P/E Ratio:
20.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
165.74
P/E ratio is -87.87% lower than main peers & is -57.66% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $221.68
SAIC is -58.55% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $61.30
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.67
Price to sales ratio is -81.54% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.19
Price to free cash flow: 12.64
Price to free cash flow ratio is -47.83% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-12.98%
Net income growth rate is -100.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.18%
Dividend yeild: 1.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.37
Previous Dividend: $1.48
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.37
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 14/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 23/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.37
2021-10-14--$0.37
2021-04-15--$0.37
2022-01-13--$0.37
2021-07-15--$0.37
2021-01-14--$0.37
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
164.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
154.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
44.56%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -29.76% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.7
Interest coverage ratio is -86.37% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.48%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.667
Statistical significance of correlation:
SAIC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is 11.90% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.01
Kurtosis
14.546
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.651
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SAIC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
46%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.08%
Operating profit margin is -187.62% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
46%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.24%
Effective tax rate is -34.70% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -69.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is 5321.87% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
1.03
Current ratio is -55.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
7.4
Cash conversion cycle is -80.22% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.72%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
288.9K
Each employee generates -32% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
23.0K
Each employee generates -49% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.3K
Each employee generates 22% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.9K
Each employee generates -203% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
168.2K
Each employee generates -203% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SAIC
ATOTECH LIMITED (XNYS:ATC)
MAXLINEAR, INC. (XNAS:MXL)
BLACKBERRY LIMITED (XNYS:BB)
Shift4 Payments Inc (XNYS:FOUR)
ROGERS CORPORATION (XNYS:ROG)
VONTIER CORPORATION (XNYS:VNT)
TERADATA CORPORATION (XNYS:TDC)
ALIGHT, INC. (XNYS:ALIT)
FABRINET (XNYS:FN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/29/22
Revenue:
7.51B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.64B
868.00M
-
-
356.00M
-
-
356.00M
-
105.00M
164.00M
598.00M
457.00M
269.00M
348.00M
60.00M
269.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
42.00M
Differed Income Tax :
20.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
10.00M
Change in Working Capital :
33.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
5.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
189.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
8.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 2000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
261.00M
-
261.00M
1.02B
156.00M
-
1.44B
333.00M
2.79B
1.11B
-
-
146.00M
4.37B
-
5.81B
891.00M
104.00M
-
-
403.00M
1.40B
2.59B
237.00M
2.83B
-
4.23B
-
687.00M
- 75000.0K
-
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
7.00B
1.58B
5.80B
-
2.69B
2.4B
1.00M
- 11000.00K
- 4000.00K
- 39000.00K
4.00M
- 53000.00K
- 22000.00K
15.00M
- 95000.00K
-
90.00M
280.00M
190.00M
189.00M
- 10000.00K
179.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SAIC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$96.64
$323.38
$338.45
$354.22
$370.72