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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Scholastic Corporation (XNAS:SCHL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SCHL
Name:
SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:SCHL)
Sector:
53.40M
Industry:
Publishing
CEO:
Mr. Richard Robinson
Total Employees:
5,160
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION(SCHL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PUBLISHING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.41
One Month Price Target:
$47.64
Six Month Price Target :
$48.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.23
Price Upper limit ($) :
$47.65
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.92
This week:
$41.84
This month :
$36.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.59B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
34.15M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.4%
-13.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.97
$53.64
$35.85
$41.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.77
$42.90
$44.05
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SCHL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.22%
Comparison:
SCHL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 63.82% higher than the industry
& is -2.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SCHL
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.33%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 52.81% above industry average
Classification:
SCHL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.38
Statistical test of Returns:
SCHL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.59%
Weekly Volatility:
5.79%
Monthly Volatility:
11.59%
Yearly Volatility:
40.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.75%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -32.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.25%
Weekly VaR:
-11.75%
Monthly VaR:
-23.50%
How Much Can the price of
SCHL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.40%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.92
This translates to price declining to:
$8.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SCHL is a 65.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 42.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.32% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SCHL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.567
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.801
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.844
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.374
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.601
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
24.07
Beta is -96.37% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.936
Beta is -6.82% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.068
Alpha is 686.80% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 434% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SCHL
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -4.57% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.82%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.41
Annual revenue growth rate is 1627.24% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.99
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
31.04%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 32.06% higher than the Publishing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.75
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.42%
Equity growth rate per share is -101.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$1.76
EBITDA per share
$0.97
Valuation Analysis Today of
SCHL
P/E Ratio:
21.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
73.78
P/E ratio is -71.16% lower than main peers & is -26.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $28.54
SCHL is 66.11% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.95
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.57
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.45
Price to sales ratio is 2.19% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.41
Price to free cash flow: 8.24
Price to free cash flow ratio is -62.98% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
124.38%
Net income growth rate is 26.87% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -31.33%
Dividend yeild: 1.27%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.60
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 14/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 16/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-28--$0.15
2021-10-28--$0.15
2021-04-29--$0.15
2022-01-28--$0.15
2021-08-30--$0.15
2021-01-28--$0.15
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-11.78%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.12%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -92.15% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
29.34%
Annual debt growth is 17% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 62.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.377
Statistical significance of correlation:
SCHL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.448
Stock price is -15.94% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.448
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.063
Kurtosis
6.592
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.116
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SCHL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
99%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.29%
Operating profit margin is 71.14% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
99%
Effective Tax Rate:
33.99%
Effective tax rate is 14.50% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-1.45%
Return on equity (ROE) is -121.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is -123.41% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.45
Current ratio is -11.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
58.8
Cash conversion cycle is -35.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-9.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
128.1K
Each employee generates -54% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
6.4K
Each employee generates -82% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3.2K
Each employee generates -119% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.3K
Each employee generates 263% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
187.4K
Each employee generates 263% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SCHL
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:BATRA)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:BATRK)
RADIUS GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (XNAS:RADI)
GOGO INC. (XNAS:GOGO)
TABOOLA.COM LTD (XNAS:TBLA)
AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AVID)
Shenandoah Telecommunications Company (XNAS:SHEN)
THRYV HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:THRY)
THE E.W. SCRIPPS COMPANY (XNAS:SSP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/28/22
Revenue:
661.20M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
331.30M
329.90M
-
-
529.20M
-
29.40M
370.30M
-
-
58.20M
33.00M
41.60M
- 16600.00K
- 25300.00K
- 8600.00K
- 16600.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
23.20M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.50M
Change in Working Capital :
57.20M
Accounts Receivables:
8.10M
Other Working Capital:
18.90M
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
63.60M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10200.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/31/21
2022
Q1
308.60M
-
308.60M
279.70M
298.10M
71.70M
958.10M
622.30M
125.90M
-
-
25.10M
193.90M
967.20M
-
1.93B
185.60M
113.30M
28.50M
125.50M
237.20M
661.60M
60.00M
54.10M
114.10M
-
775.70M
400.00K
887.00M
- 40400.0K
301.30M
August 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
701.60M
1.15B
1.92B
-
173.30M
- 135300.0K
-
- 4300.00K
- 14500.00K
- 101900.00K
-
-
- 5200.00K
1.50M
- 105600.00K
- 1400.00K
- 57900.00K
308.60M
366.50M
63.60M
- 10200.00K
53.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SCHL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$62.20
$65.84
$69.70
$73.79
$78.12