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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Scholar Rock Holding Corporation (XNAS:SRRK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SRRK
Name:
SCHOLAR ROCK HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:SRRK)
Sector:
- 43008.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Nagesh Mahanthappa
Total Employees:
145
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.96% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SCHOLAR ROCK HOLDING CORPORATION(SRRK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.01
One Month Price Target:
$9.04
Six Month Price Target :
$9.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.66
This week:
$5.98
This month :
$2.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
447.72M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
118.8%
-21.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.29
$12.39
$2.73
$5.63
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.83
$6.56
$7.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SRRK
Sharpe Ratio:
2.73%
Comparison:
SRRK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 40.42% higher than the industry
& ratio is 19.79% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SRRK
Daily returns:
0.21%
Weekly returns:
1.06%
Monthly returns:
4.23%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 101.06% above industry average
Classification:
SRRK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
SRRK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.42%
Weekly Volatility:
16.58%
Monthly Volatility:
33.16%
Yearly Volatility:
114.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-15.02%
Weekly VaR:
-33.58%
Monthly VaR:
-67.16%
How Much Can the price of
SRRK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-57%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.88
This translates to price declining to:
$1.35
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SRRK is a 374.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 306.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 55.96% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SRRK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.54
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.119
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.582
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.502
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.57
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.336
Beta is -59.77% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -53.32% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.439
Alpha is 209.37% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2793% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SRRK
Equity cost of capital:
0.068
Equity cost of capital is -38.11% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.84
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.72
-
EPS:
-$3.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 147.81% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.19
EBITDA per share
-$2.11
Valuation Analysis Today of
SRRK
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
100.36
-
-
SRRK is -103.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.76
Price to sales ratio is -73.44% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.72
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-100.00%
Net income growth rate is -241.68% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
35.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.04%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.34% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
206.78%
Annual debt growth is 53% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.091
Statistical significance of correlation:
SRRK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -73.23% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.072
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.312
Kurtosis
97.017
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
6.408
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SRRK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-253.51%
Operating profit margin is -40.86% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-44.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-28.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is 40.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
6.85
Current ratio is -15.39% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-8.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
298.3K
Each employee generates -81% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 749.9K
Each employee generates -295% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 525.3K
Each employee generates -510% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 296.6K
Each employee generates -301% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
257.9K
Each employee generates -301% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 46.46%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1394.87% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SRRK
ZOGENIX, INC. (XNAS:ZGNX)
LEMAITRE VASCULAR, INC. (XNAS:LMAT)
COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CHRS)
BIOLIFE SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:BLFS)
MANNKIND CORPORATION (XNAS:MNKD)
Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc. (XNAS:MNMD)
Kinnate Biopharma Inc (XNAS:KNTE)
Aligos Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:ALGS)
SI-BONE, INC. (XNAS:SIBN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
43.25M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
86.23M
31.30M
41.66M
-
29.05M
156.95M
-
-
2.79M
- 108742.00K
- 109647.00K
- 76164.00K
- 76164.00K
-
- 76164.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
749.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.83M
Change in Working Capital :
- 44204.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 33193.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.01M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 42565.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 443.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 80133.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
100.18M
110.04M
210.21M
-
-
18.38M
228.59M
33.23M
-
-
-
-
4.17M
37.39M
-
265.98M
2.99M
14.20M
-
-
16.18M
33.37M
61.29M
-
61.29M
-
94.66M
35.00K
- 384080.00K
- 152.0K
555.51M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
156.95M
171.32M
265.98M
-
75.49M
- 24689.0K
10.00M
-
- 70576.00K
-
-
-
-
481.00K
481.00K
-
- 112660.00K
102.67M
215.33M
- 42565.00K
- 443.00K
- 43008.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SRRK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.37
$9.71
$10.06
$10.42
$10.80