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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:SRPT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SRPT
Name:
SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRPT)
Sector:
- 106726.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Douglas Ingram
Total Employees:
840
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -35.62% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS, INC.(SRPT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
109.38
One Month Price Target:
$110.11
Six Month Price Target :
$113.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$118.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$108.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$110.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$100.93
This week:
$90.49
This month :
$71.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
87.57M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
31.43%
-51.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$148.57
$130.53
$70.19
$88.23
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$124.65
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$120.80
$94.06
$97.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SRPT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.21%
Comparison:
SRPT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 13.72% higher than the industry
& is -2.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SRPT
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.86%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -11.51% below industry average
Classification:
SRPT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
SRPT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.81%
Weekly Volatility:
8.51%
Monthly Volatility:
17.02%
Yearly Volatility:
58.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.72%
Weekly VaR:
-17.27%
Monthly VaR:
-34.54%
How Much Can the price of
SRPT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$77.14
This translates to price declining to:
$16.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SRPT is a 143.77% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 108.84% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.95% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SRPT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.823
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.164
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.51
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.816
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.633
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.944
Beta is 25.90% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 3.18% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.110
Alpha is -22.24% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 702% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SRPT
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is 2.27% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.42%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.42%
WACC is -3.70% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.18
-
EPS:
-$4.25
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-19.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -290.92% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$12.99
EBITDA per share
-$2.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
SRPT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
569.1
-
-
SRPT is -128.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
12.51
Price to sales ratio is -69.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.18
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
132.74%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-11.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
37.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -11.72% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3.96
Interest coverage ratio is -96.65% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.365
Statistical significance of correlation:
SRPT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 7.37% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Kurtosis
55.055
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-2.769
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SRPT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
345%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-51.55%
Operating profit margin is -87.98% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
345%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.24%
Effective tax rate is -104.21% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-41.61%
Return on equity (ROE) is -27.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.67%
Return on assets (ROA) is -42.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
5.56
Current ratio is -31.28% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
214.9
Cash conversion cycle is -59.69% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-8.19%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
911.7K
Each employee generates -43% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 300.3K
Each employee generates -178% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 424.5K
Each employee generates -432% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 127.1K
Each employee generates -186% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
625.2K
Each employee generates -186% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SRPT
MIRATI THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MRTX)
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:NBIX)
OMNICELL, INC. (XNAS:OMCL)
INTELLIA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NTLA)
NOVOCURE LIMITED (XNAS:NVCR)
Legend Biotech Corporation (XNAS:LEGN)
MEDPACE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MEDP)
Ascendis Pharma A/S (XNAS:ASND)
JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:JAZZ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�46%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
765.79M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
106.15M
659.64M
770.28M
283.37M
283.37M
-
714.00K
1.05B
468.00K
63.67M
39.81M
- 252225.00K
- 394726.00K
- 356555.00K
- 355701.00K
854.00K
- 356555.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.72M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
29.20M
Change in Working Capital :
- 43517.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 25204.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 22005.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.45M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 101175.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5551.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 779770.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.23B
779.55M
2.01B
197.20M
199.00M
121.32M
2.53B
233.23M
-
-
33.39M
-
245.26M
525.21M
-
3.06B
54.01M
-
-
89.24M
311.71M
454.96M
1.14B
54.60M
1.74B
-
2.20B
9.00K
- 3311773.00K
- 306.0K
4.17B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.16B
856.89M
3.06B
812.94M
1.14B
- 96410.0K
-
- 486.00K
- 785807.00K
-
-
-
-
4.99M
4.99M
-
- 881992.00K
1.24B
2.13B
- 101175.00K
- 5551.00K
- 106726.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SRPT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$118.49
$127.95
$138.17
$149.21
$161.12