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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Saia, Inc. (XNAS:SAIA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SAIA
Name:
SAIA, INC. (XNAS:SAIA)
Sector:
49.70M
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Mr. Richard O'Dell
Total Employees:
11,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -122.92% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SAIA, INC.(SAIA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
206.21
One Month Price Target:
$207.87
Six Month Price Target :
$216.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$226.13
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$205.45
Price Upper limit ($) :
$207.65
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$193.2
This week:
$177.12
This month :
$148.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.54B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
26.41M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.92%
-12.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$266.50
$238.32
$145.92
$174.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$229.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$223.14
$183.19
$189.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SAIA
Sharpe Ratio:
4.94%
Comparison:
SAIA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 54.34% higher than the industry
& ratio is 116.94% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SAIA
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.82%
Monthly returns:
3.29%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 25.55% above industry average
Classification:
SAIA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.19
Statistical test of Returns:
SAIA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.15%
Weekly Volatility:
7.05%
Monthly Volatility:
14.10%
Yearly Volatility:
48.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.36% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.31%
Weekly VaR:
-14.11%
Monthly VaR:
-28.21%
How Much Can the price of
SAIA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$158.67
This translates to price declining to:
$30.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SAIA is a 99.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 70.59% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.20% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SAIA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.44
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.869
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.23
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.349
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.098
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.814
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.374
Beta is 4.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is 4.13% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
22.89%
Sustainable growth rate is 1.87% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.265
Alpha is 40.54% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1689% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SAIA
Equity cost of capital:
0.130
Equity cost of capital is 3.10% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.60%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.60%
WACC is 23.15% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$93.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.22
Annual revenue growth rate is -54.15% below industry average
EPS:
$11.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
29.35%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -24.12% lower than the Trucking industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.24
-
-
Debt per share
$4.19
EBITDA per share
$20.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
SAIA
P/E Ratio:
16.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
64.59
P/E ratio is -75.09% lower than main peers & is -2.71% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $182.89
SAIA is 12.75% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.21
Price to sales ratio is -87.93% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.22
Price to free cash flow: 48.66
Price to free cash flow ratio is 46.24% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
135.98%
Net income growth rate is 2284.50% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
0.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.01% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
175.83
Interest coverage ratio is 19.94% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.01%
Annual debt growth is -118% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.76%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.662
Statistical significance of correlation:
SAIA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is 46.64% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.031
Kurtosis
2.749
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.262
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SAIA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
82%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.81%
Operating profit margin is -101.40% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
82%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.74%
Effective tax rate is 5.09% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is 37.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.29%
Return on assets (ROA) is 124.61% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.51
Current ratio is -63.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
26.2
Cash conversion cycle is -9.61% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
212.6K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
46.3K
Each employee generates -9% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
25.5K
Each employee generates 8% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.3K
Each employee generates -21% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
122.6K
Each employee generates -21% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SAIA
WILLSCOT MOBILE MINI HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:WSC)
JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION (XNAS:JBLU)
TETRA TECH, INC. (XNAS:TTEK)
ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD (XNAS:ESLT)
STERICYCLE, INC. (XNAS:SRCL)
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
AVIS BUDGET GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CAR)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAL)
UPWORK INC. (XNAS:UPWK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.47B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.96B
508.14M
-
10.74M
10.74M
-
57.44M
68.17M
-
3.05M
146.28M
536.63M
389.88M
295.37M
387.30M
91.93M
295.37M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
39.95M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2030.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 21566.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
181.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
95.96M
Investments in PP&E:
- 46259.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
141.33M
-
141.33M
322.34M
-
47.00M
510.67M
1.38B
-
-
-
-
27.36M
1.42B
-
1.93B
130.16M
40.36M
-
-
168.60M
339.12M
110.57M
69.06M
301.74M
-
640.86M
26.00K
1.03B
-
262.27M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.03B
1.29B
1.93B
-
150.93M
9.6M
-
883.00K
- 45376.00K
- 5525.00K
-
- 11230.00K
-
907.00K
- 15848.00K
-
34.74M
141.33M
106.59M
95.96M
- 46259.00K
49.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SAIA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$227.26
$471.42
$516.96
$566.89
$621.65