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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:SAGE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SAGE
Name:
SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SAGE)
Sector:
- 107969.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Jeffrey Jonas
Total Employees:
471
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 12.40% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC.(SAGE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.65
One Month Price Target:
$38.95
Six Month Price Target :
$40.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$38.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$35.66
This week:
$31.97
This month :
$25.29
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
59.42M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.53%
-20.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.52
$46.23
$24.78
$31.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$44.18
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.83
$33.10
$34.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SAGE
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.54%
Comparison:
SAGE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -127.92% lower than the industry
& is -123.82% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SAGE
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.06%
Monthly returns:
-0.23%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -110.99% below industry average
Classification:
SAGE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
SAGE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.76%
Weekly Volatility:
8.40%
Monthly Volatility:
16.81%
Yearly Volatility:
58.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.62%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -30.29% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.73%
Weekly VaR:
-17.28%
Monthly VaR:
-34.57%
How Much Can the price of
SAGE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$26.78
This translates to price declining to:
$5.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SAGE is a 143.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 109.02% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.95% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SAGE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.39
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.811
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.147
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.055
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.888
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.965
Beta is 43.56% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 20.34% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
32.74%
Sustainable growth rate is -37.58% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.154
Alpha is -208.69% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -981% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SAGE
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is 14.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.45%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.45%
WACC is 38.63% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -116.50% below industry average
EPS:
-$8.23
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-16.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -264.96% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.16
EBITDA per share
-$8.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
SAGE
P/E Ratio:
2.8
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
243.23
P/E ratio is -98.85% lower than main peers & is -96.88% lower than the industry
-
SAGE is -105.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
364.15
Price to sales ratio is 799.04% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.42
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-3.47%
Net income growth rate is -104.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.99%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-411.93
Interest coverage ratio is 248.09% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-34.41%
Annual debt growth is -125% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.487
Statistical significance of correlation:
SAGE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 43.15% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.006
Kurtosis
4.293
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.67
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SAGE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
359%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-7731.11%
Operating profit margin is 1703.46% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
359%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-29.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is -47.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-28.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 39.13% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
21.65
Current ratio is 167.44% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-6897.4
Cash conversion cycle is -1393.98% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.83%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
13.4K
Each employee generates -99% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1021.5K
Each employee generates -365% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1028.0K
Each employee generates -903% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 229.2K
Each employee generates -256% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
49.8K
Each employee generates -256% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -3.26%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -9.08% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SAGE
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:ALHC)
BEAM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:BEAM)
IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:IOVA)
I-MAB (XNAS:IMAB)
CERTARA, INC. (XNAS:CERT)
ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ALLO)
PROGYNY, INC. (XNAS:PGNY)
ICU MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:ICUI)
RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RXRX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�33%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.31M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
652.00K
5.66M
303.13M
190.13M
190.13M
-
-
493.26M
3.34M
1.17M
1.88M
- 481140.00K
- 487601.00K
- 484183.00K
- 484183.00K
-
- 484183.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
275.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
18.55M
Change in Working Capital :
- 6917.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.34M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 107800.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 169.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 301928.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
178.67M
1.45B
1.63B
19.80M
-
37.21M
1.68B
17.60M
-
-
-
-
5.86M
23.46M
-
1.71B
7.13M
7.52M
-
-
63.05M
77.70M
9.40M
102.00K
9.50M
-
87.20M
6.00K
- 1617441.00K
- 11201.0K
3.25B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
493.91M
1.62B
1.71B
-
16.92M
- 161755.0K
292.54M
-
- 9558.00K
-
-
-
-
1.80M
1.80M
-
- 115559.00K
179.94M
295.50M
- 107800.00K
- 169.00K
- 107969.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SAGE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$42.38
$46.33
$50.65
$55.36
$60.52