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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sabre Corporation (XNAS:SABR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SABR
Name:
SABRE CORPORATION (XNAS:SABR)
Sector:
- 17403.00K
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Sean Menke
Total Employees:
7,583
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -134.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SABRE CORPORATION(SABR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.1
One Month Price Target:
$7.17
Six Month Price Target :
$7.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.93
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.17
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.28
This week:
$5.27
This month :
$3.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
328.19M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
40.11%
-31.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.91
$9.18
$3.29
$5.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.25
$5.58
$5.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SABR
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.32%
Comparison:
SABR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -117.72% lower than the industry
& is -114.09% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SABR
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.05%
Monthly returns:
-0.18%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -115.31% below industry average
Classification:
SABR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
SABR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.62%
Weekly Volatility:
12.57%
Monthly Volatility:
25.14%
Yearly Volatility:
87.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -90.17% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.56%
Weekly VaR:
-25.84%
Monthly VaR:
-51.68%
How Much Can the price of
SABR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.85
This translates to price declining to:
$1.07
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SABR is a 264.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 212.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 85.31% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SABR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.923
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.305
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.182
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.55
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.453
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.243
Beta is 39.56% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is 43.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2762.11%
Sustainable growth rate is 1755.88% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.172
Alpha is -673.46% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1097% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SABR
Equity cost of capital:
0.150
Equity cost of capital is 31.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-1.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.36%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.24%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.24%
WACC is -35.69% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-7.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -439.02% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -87.96%
Equity growth rate per share is -380.58% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$14.42
EBITDA per share
-$0.46
Valuation Analysis Today of
SABR
P/E Ratio:
11.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
214.38
P/E ratio is -94.63% lower than main peers & is -75.73% lower than the industry
-
SABR is -107.40% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.2
Price to sales ratio is -67.22% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-7.42
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-335.92%
Net income growth rate is -100.42% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -0.85%
Dividend yeild: 28.61%
Previous Dividend: $1.75
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.75
Previous Dividend: $2.03
Expected next dividend best case: $5.49
Expected next dividend worst case: -$1.99
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.68
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 575.50%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 12/01/2020
Previous dividend record date: 15/11/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/10/2020
Dividend History:
2020-11-12--$1.75
2019-12-19--$0.14
--$0.00
2020-03-19--$0.14
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -8094.26% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-1081.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-814.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
89.05%
Net debt to assets ratio:
67.04%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 40.36% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.59
Interest coverage ratio is -101.41% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 11.84%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.573
Statistical significance of correlation:
SABR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is -3.87% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.093
Kurtosis
9.205
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.696
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SABR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
64%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-21.34%
Operating profit margin is 207.39% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
64%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.83%
Effective tax rate is -89.26% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
142.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is 154.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is -13892.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
9.1x
Current Ratio:
2.42
Current ratio is 4.37% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.7
Cash conversion cycle is -31.46% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.41%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
256.7K
Each employee generates -39% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 19.8K
Each employee generates -144% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 82.5K
Each employee generates -1069% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.3K
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
479.5K
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SABR
RAMBUS INC. (XNAS:RMBS)
MANTECH INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MANT)
COMMVAULT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CVLT)
ITRON, INC. (XNAS:ITRI)
Cerence Inc. (XNAS:CRNC)
SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:SIMO)
Rackspace Technology, Inc. (XNAS:RXT)
ACV AUCTIONS INC. (XNAS:ACVA)
KINGSOFT CLOUD HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:KC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.95B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.57B
378.41M
-
-
647.14M
-
-
647.14M
-
254.78M
239.07M
- 149899.00K
- 415390.00K
- 625731.00K
- 635505.00K
- 18013.00K
- 625731.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
50.11M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2570.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
27.61M
Change in Working Capital :
- 122821.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 106655.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.62M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
- 17403.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.19B
-
1.19B
333.58M
-
158.43M
1.68B
238.59M
2.48B
173.63M
23.04M
25.52M
698.65M
3.64B
-
5.31B
155.81M
16.73M
-
76.15M
445.84M
694.53M
4.73B
-
4.77B
-
5.31B
3.50M
- 3007635.00K
- 77823.0K
2.64B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.22B
- 437705.00K
4.88B
-
4.75B
3.6B
-
392.27M
374.87M
- 635481.00K
-
-
- 5346.00K
614.99M
- 25835.00K
- 205.00K
208.06M
1.21B
999.39M
-
- 17403.00K
- 17403.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SABR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.95
$8.88
$9.92
$11.07
$12.36