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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sabra Health Care Reit, Inc. (XNAS:SBRA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SBRA
Name:
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC. (XNAS:SBRA)
Sector:
63.11M
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Richard Matros
Total Employees:
42
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.58% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC.(SBRA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.76
One Month Price Target:
$14.87
Six Month Price Target :
$15.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.06
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.67
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.69
This week:
$12.36
This month :
$9.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
230.97M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.3%
-28.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.74
$17.47
$9.78
$12.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.25
$12.78
$13.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SBRA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.02%
Comparison:
SBRA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -114.81% lower than the industry
& is -98.94% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SBRA
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.19%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 426.45% above industry average
Classification:
SBRA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
SBRA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.54%
Weekly Volatility:
7.92%
Monthly Volatility:
15.85%
Yearly Volatility:
54.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.84%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.34% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.27%
Weekly VaR:
-16.25%
Monthly VaR:
-32.50%
How Much Can the price of
SBRA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.53
This translates to price declining to:
$2.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SBRA is a 129.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 96.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.75% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SBRA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.877
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.24
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.768
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.884
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.092
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.401
Beta is -6.21% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is 27.51% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.098
Alpha is 0.57% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -625% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SBRA
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is 19.02% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.21%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.32%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.32%
WACC is 22.04% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.51
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.01
Annual revenue growth rate is -6716.63% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.49
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -34.73%
Equity growth rate per share is 75.54% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.21
EBITDA per share
$0.75
Valuation Analysis Today of
SBRA
P/E Ratio:
78.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
71.79
P/E ratio is 9.99% higher than main peers & is -51.69% lower than the industry
-
SBRA is -118.43% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $14.80
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.49
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.87
Price to sales ratio is -9.32% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.01
Price to free cash flow: 9.93
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-132.76%
Net income growth rate is 154.23% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -65.29%
Dividend yeild: 8.13%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -3.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.30
2021-11-15--$0.30
2021-05-14--$0.30
2022-02-10--$0.30
2021-08-16--$0.30
2021-02-11--$0.30
Dividend growth rate is -80.53% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
70.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
69.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -25.39% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.76
Interest coverage ratio is -5.61% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.93%
Annual debt growth is -89% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.538
Statistical significance of correlation:
SBRA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is -6.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.006
Kurtosis
28.93
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.018
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SBRA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
299%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
37.34%
Operating profit margin is 115.60% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
299%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.37%
Effective tax rate is -135.85% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -188.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is -202.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
4.45
Current ratio is 28.82% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
255.8
Cash conversion cycle is 977.96% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 17.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-2.31%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
13.8M
Each employee generates 40% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
4.2M
Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 2526.2K
Each employee generates -222% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 60% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
127.6M
Each employee generates 60% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SBRA
UNITI GROUP INC. (XNAS:UNIT)
REDFIN CORPORATION (XNAS:RDFN)
NEWMARK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NMRK)
PHILLIPS EDISON & COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:PECO)
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
EXP WORLD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXPI)
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC. (XNAS:MDRRP)
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
580.29M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
145.24M
435.05M
-
8.24M
36.13M
-
182.26M
218.38M
-
99.16M
179.87M
174.36M
216.67M
- 106101.00K
- 104672.00K
1.43M
- 106101.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.26M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.46M
Change in Working Capital :
- 26425.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 5457.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.23M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
63.11M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4074.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
24.84M
-
24.84M
496.59M
-
4.44M
525.87M
-
-
-
150.13M
-
5.16B
5.36B
-
5.88B
118.30M
-
-
-
-
118.30M
2.36B
47.58M
2.41B
-
2.52B
2.31M
- 1124095.00K
1.7M
4.48B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
363.62M
3.36B
5.88B
-
2.36B
2.3B
729.00K
- 33897.00K
- 37242.00K
- 56067.00K
-
- 3748.00K
- 69275.00K
16.57M
- 112519.00K
40.00K
- 86607.00K
29.28M
115.89M
63.11M
-
63.11M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SBRA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.11
$17.53
$19.08
$20.77
$22.60