_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
S & T Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:STBA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
STBA
Name:
S & T BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:STBA)
Sector:
85.94M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Todd Brice
Total Employees:
1,160
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 293.45% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF S & T BANCORP, INC.(STBA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.74
One Month Price Target:
$29.85
Six Month Price Target :
$30.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.11
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.6
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.08
This week:
$26.03
This month :
$22.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.15B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.15M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.16%
-11.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.45
$33.94
$22.03
$25.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.06
$26.67
$27.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
STBA
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.28%
Comparison:
STBA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -122.39% lower than the industry
& is -112.07% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
STBA
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.03%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -96.99% below industry average
Classification:
STBA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
STBA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.72%
Weekly Volatility:
6.08%
Monthly Volatility:
12.16%
Yearly Volatility:
42.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.49%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.58%
Weekly VaR:
-12.48%
Monthly VaR:
-24.97%
How Much Can the price of
STBA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-86.48%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.18
This translates to price declining to:
$4.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
STBA is a 76.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.82% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
STBA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.57
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.806
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.65
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.578
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.828
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.906
Beta is -24.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -28.98% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.50%
Sustainable growth rate is -39.79% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.075
Alpha is -747.27% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -478% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
STBA
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -19.62% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
14.89%
After-tax cost of debt:
11.76%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
11.76%
WACC is -31.50% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.73% below industry average
EPS:
$2.74
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.21%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -65.00% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.11%
Equity growth rate per share is -66.14% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$1.96
EBITDA per share
$3.97
Valuation Analysis Today of
STBA
P/E Ratio:
10.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.73
P/E ratio is 0.68% higher than main peers & is -12.91% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $34.00
STBA is -12.53% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.65
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.36
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.49
Price to sales ratio is -18.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
Price to free cash flow: 5.58
Price to free cash flow ratio is -76.05% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-7.67%
Net income growth rate is -113.93% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.57%
Dividend yeild: 3.90%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.70%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 18/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-04--$0.30
2021-11-03--$0.29
2021-05-05--$0.28
2022-02-09--$0.29
2021-08-04--$0.28
2021-02-10--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -97.03% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-63.06%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.81%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.92%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.63
Interest coverage ratio is 1544.48% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-52.80%
Annual debt growth is -16772% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.34%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.555
Statistical significance of correlation:
STBA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 10.77% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.076
Kurtosis
6.796
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.67
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
STBA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.83%
Effective tax rate is -12.60% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is -23.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.14%
Return on assets (ROA) is -50.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
287.9K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
134.0K
Each employee generates -41% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
92.7K
Each employee generates -34% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
74.1K
Each employee generates -11% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -11% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
STBA
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
BROOKLINE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:BRKL)
OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:OCFC)
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBIN)
TRICO BANCSHARES (XNAS:TCBK)
THE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBBK)
FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION (XNAS:BUSE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
333.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
121.61M
126.20M
4.59M
-
-
284.16M
11.40M
11.48M
155.43M
-
107.59M
132.55M
24.96M
107.59M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
86.60M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
86.60M
Investments in PP&E:
- 660.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 211265.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
823.76M
1.03B
1.85B
-
-
-
-
51.67M
373.42M
6.50M
1.03B
-
-
1.46B
10.89B
9.43B
-
-
-
-
-
-
76.58M
-
76.58M
8.32B
8.25B
103.62M
791.35M
- 47043.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.18B
9.43B
2.06B
76.58M
- 747178.0K
44.03M
44.96M
- 122940.00K
- 259.00K
-
- 56.00K
- 11374.00K
- 50425.00K
- 62114.00K
-
- 98458.00K
823.76M
922.22M
86.60M
- 660.00K
85.94M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
STBA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.82
$36.42
$38.10
$39.85
$41.68