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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
S&P Global Inc. (XNYS:SPGI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPGI
Name:
S&P Global Inc. (XNYS:SPGI)
Sector:
206.00M
Industry:
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
CEO:
Mr. Douglas Peterson
Total Employees:
22,850
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 332.31% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF S&P GLOBAL INC.(SPGI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL DATA & STOCK EXCHANGES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
347.63
One Month Price Target:
$349.67
Six Month Price Target :
$359.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$372.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$346.56
Price Upper limit ($) :
$349.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$332.45
This week:
$313.68
This month :
$279.73
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
118.99B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
333.50M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.86%
-15.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$418.05
$385.58
$277.21
$309.68
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$375.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$368.07
$320.16
$327.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPGI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.33%
Comparison:
SPGI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -13.98% lower than the industry
& ratio is 2.01% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPGI
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.18%
Yearly returns:
18.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -25.49% below industry average
Classification:
SPGI, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
SPGI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.16%
Weekly Volatility:
4.82%
Monthly Volatility:
9.64%
Yearly Volatility:
33.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.37%
Weekly VaR:
-9.77%
Monthly VaR:
-19.53%
How Much Can the price of
SPGI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.66%
This translates to price declining to:
$289.94
This translates to price declining to:
$112.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPGI is a 37.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 18.09% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.47% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPGI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.734
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.038
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.853
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.844
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.834
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.862
Beta is 21.54% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.802
Beta is 30.63% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
149.50%
Sustainable growth rate is 321.47% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.038
Alpha is -63.04% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 243% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPGI
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is 19.47% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.95%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.95%
WACC is 26.28% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.68
Annual revenue growth rate is 13.28% above the industry average
EPS:
$13.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.09%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -16.24% lower than the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.77
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 53.85%
Equity growth rate per share is 85.96% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$36.04
EBITDA per share
$15.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPGI
P/E Ratio:
25.9
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.96
P/E ratio is 116.54% higher than main peers & is -16.72% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $431.12
SPGI is -19.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $70.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $54.60
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.37
Price to sales ratio is 34.81% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.68
Price to free cash flow: 32.28
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
60.85%
Net income growth rate is -4.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.31%
Dividend yeild: 0.91%
Previous Dividend: $0.85
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.85
Previous Dividend: $3.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.92
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.78
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.72
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 30/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.85
2021-11-24--$0.77
2021-05-25--$0.77
2022-02-09--$0.77
2021-08-25--$0.77
2021-02-23--$0.77
Dividend growth rate is -52.51% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
30.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
19.34%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.62%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -66.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
35.43
Interest coverage ratio is 17.96% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.51%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.77
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPGI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
Stock price is 21.79% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.021
Kurtosis
10.097
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.224
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPGI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
289%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
58.05%
Operating profit margin is 66.51% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
289%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.56%
Effective tax rate is 9.96% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.83%
Return on equity (ROE) is -82.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -53.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.38
Current ratio is -18.56% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.9
Cash conversion cycle is 5.19% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
379.4K
Each employee generates -55% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
224.8K
Each employee generates -48% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
153.4K
Each employee generates -42% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.0K
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.6M
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPGI
China Life Insurance Company Limited (OTCM:LFCHY)
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA (XNYS:RY)
THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:PNC)
BAM
THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (XNYS:BNS)
Truist Financial Corporation (XNYS:TFC)
Chubb Ltd (XNYS:CB)
HDFC BANK LIMITED (XNYS:HDB)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�38%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.67B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.42B
6.25B
-
-
2.31B
-
264.00M
2.58B
-
145.00M
265.00M
5.14B
5.03B
3.51B
4.98B
1.22B
3.51B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
137.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 53000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
94.00M
Change in Working Capital :
55.00M
Accounts Receivables:
187.00M
Other Working Capital:
420.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1310000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
222.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
2.91B
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.41B
-
4.41B
2.43B
-
957.00M
7.79B
973.00M
33.64B
21.18B
1.62B
-
897.00M
58.31B
-
66.09B
410.00M
66.00M
518.00M
3.17B
2.01B
5.65B
12.02B
761.00M
17.23B
-
22.88B
415.00M
16.07B
- 782000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.99B
39.70B
62.58B
-
12.08B
7.7B
-
- 12000.00K
2.90B
- 3293000.00K
-
- 7003000.00K
- 186000.00K
5.28B
- 5205000.00K
- 16000.00K
- 2098000.00K
4.41B
6.51B
222.00M
- 16000.00K
206.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPGI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$380.94
$407.76
$436.46
$467.18
$500.07