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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ryder System, Inc. (XNYS:R) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
R
Name:
RYDER SYSTEM, INC. (XNYS:R)
Sector:
- 118585.00K
Industry:
Rental & Leasing Services
CEO:
Mr. Robert Sanchez
Total Employees:
42,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -84.14% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RYDER SYSTEM, INC.(R) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RENTAL & LEASING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
74.37
One Month Price Target:
$75.07
Six Month Price Target :
$78.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$82.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$74.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$74.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$69.89
This week:
$64.35
This month :
$54.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.78B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.19M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.03%
-13.11%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$95.16
$85.54
$53.58
$63.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.41
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.36
$66.30
$68.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
R
Sharpe Ratio:
2.99%
Comparison:
R, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -0.24% lower than the industry
& ratio is 31.22% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
R
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.96%
Yearly returns:
31.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -24.70% below industry average
Classification:
R, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
R has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.98%
Weekly Volatility:
6.67%
Monthly Volatility:
13.34%
Yearly Volatility:
46.20%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.69% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.03%
Weekly VaR:
-13.48%
Monthly VaR:
-26.95%
How Much Can the price of
R
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-93.36%
This translates to price declining to:
$57.48
This translates to price declining to:
$4.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
R is a 90.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 62.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.01% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
R
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.906
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.282
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.655
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.86
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.746
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.107
Beta is 51.80% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.628
Beta is 3.21% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.82%
Sustainable growth rate is -2.09% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.089
Alpha is -47.66% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 565% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
R
Equity cost of capital:
0.147
Equity cost of capital is 2.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.89%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.28%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.28%
WACC is 8.52% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$201.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.44
Annual revenue growth rate is -43.29% below industry average
EPS:
$12.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.59
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.65%
Equity growth rate per share is -70.73% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$109.50
EBITDA per share
$56.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
R
P/E Ratio:
5.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.14
P/E ratio is -72.34% lower than main peers & is -70.64% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $216.72
R is -65.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.99
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.28
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.37
Price to sales ratio is -80.36% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.44
Price to free cash flow: 125.87
Price to free cash flow ratio is -19.04% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
87.74%
Net income growth rate is -61.49% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.23%
Dividend yeild: 3.12%
Previous Dividend: $0.58
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.58
Previous Dividend: $2.32
Expected next dividend best case: $0.59
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.57
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.57
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.36%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/04/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/06/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-20--$0.58
2021-11-19--$0.58
2021-05-21--$0.56
2022-02-18--$0.58
2021-08-20--$0.58
2021-02-12--$0.56
Dividend growth rate is -193.03% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
211.67%
Net debt to equity ratio:
267.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.61
Interest coverage ratio is -134.24% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.87%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.627
Statistical significance of correlation:
R has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.547
Stock price is 14.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.547
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
4.803
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.308
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
R
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
77%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.02%
Operating profit margin is -27.97% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
77%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.13%
Effective tax rate is 14.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.31%
Return on equity (ROE) is -150.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is 15.02% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.59
Current ratio is -53.41% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
21.4
Cash conversion cycle is -2.77% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
240.5K
Each employee generates -89% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
67.3K
Each employee generates -100% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
15.0K
Each employee generates -100% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.8K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
283.3K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
R
INSPERITY, INC. (XNYS:NSP)
TRITON INTERNATIONAL LIMITED (XNYS:TRTN)
FLOWSERVE CORPORATION (XNYS:FLS)
CORE & MAIN, INC. (XNYS:CNM)
AL-PA
NAMVIET JOINT - STOCK COMPANY (XSTC:NAV)
KORN FERRY (XNYS:KFY)
APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:AIT)
BWX TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:BWXT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.30B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.32B
1.98B
-
-
1.12B
269.27M
136.96M
1.25B
-
211.55M
1.80B
2.88B
722.27M
643.80M
874.24M
228.41M
643.80M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
461.20M
Differed Income Tax :
58.19M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 208736.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 20772.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
465.70M
Investments in PP&E:
- 584289.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 424754.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
221.89M
-
221.89M
1.60B
74.83M
212.79M
2.11B
9.36B
844.79M
322.12M
-
-
1.59B
12.12B
-
14.24B
867.32M
1.71B
171.50M
276.47M
699.15M
3.56B
5.61B
652.40M
8.03B
-
11.59B
25.57M
2.17B
- 681995.0K
1.13B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.57B
2.65B
14.24B
-
7.32B
7.1B
-
225.40M
- 783640.00K
- 492851.00K
-
- 312232.00K
- 33653.00K
709.07M
- 129668.00K
- 3846.00K
- 451439.00K
221.89M
673.33M
465.70M
- 584289.00K
- 118585.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
R
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$83.18
$139.30
$155.03
$172.54
$192.02