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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ruth'S Hospitality Group, Inc. (XNAS:RUTH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RUTH
Name:
RUTH'S HOSPITALITY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:RUTH)
Sector:
- 517.00K
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Ms. Cheryl Henry
Total Employees:
4,527
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 116.40% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RUTH'S HOSPITALITY GROUP, INC.(RUTH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
18.02
One Month Price Target:
$18.22
Six Month Price Target :
$19.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.21
This week:
$13.97
This month :
$9.91
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
591.34M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
42.99%
-34.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.43
$22.57
$9.61
$13.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.49
$14.71
$15.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RUTH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.65%
Comparison:
RUTH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -0.08% lower than the industry
& is -27.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RUTH
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.80%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 35.23% above industry average
Classification:
RUTH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
1
Statistical test of Returns:
RUTH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.94%
Weekly Volatility:
11.05%
Monthly Volatility:
22.10%
Yearly Volatility:
76.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.25%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.74% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.06%
Weekly VaR:
-22.49%
Monthly VaR:
-44.99%
How Much Can the price of
RUTH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.04
This translates to price declining to:
$2.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RUTH is a 217.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 172.02% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 41.51% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RUTH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.16
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.64
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.734
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.21
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.239
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.803
Beta is 7.56% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is 43.24% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.20%
Sustainable growth rate is -30.20% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.052
Alpha is 45.45% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 333% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RUTH
Equity cost of capital:
0.164
Equity cost of capital is 32.27% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.71%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.71%
WACC is 97.09% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.27
Annual revenue growth rate is -191.35% below industry average
EPS:
$1.27
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -261.87% lower than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.23
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 933.86% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$7.67
EBITDA per share
$2.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
RUTH
P/E Ratio:
14.79
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.27
P/E ratio is 20.53% higher than main peers & is -37.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $30.05
RUTH is -40.03% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.67
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.53
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.3
Price to sales ratio is -60.11% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.27
Price to free cash flow: 14.60
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-12.18%
Net income growth rate is -107.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.43%
Dividend yeild: 3.00%
Previous Dividend: $0.14
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.14
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Expected next dividend best case: $0.17
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.11
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.14
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.02%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-18--$0.14
2020-03-05--$0.15
--$0.00
2022-02-02--$0.12
2019-11-20--$0.13
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -276.60% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
181.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
146.87%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.66%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -68.07% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
28.42
Interest coverage ratio is 60.72% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.21%
Annual debt growth is -125% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.16%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.541
Statistical significance of correlation:
RUTH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 4.74% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.084
Kurtosis
16.536
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.246
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RUTH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
108%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.83%
Operating profit margin is 15.20% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
108%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.75%
Effective tax rate is -43.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is 9448.24% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is -40.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
0.95
Current ratio is -15.61% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
19.3
Cash conversion cycle is -42.02% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
103.4K
Each employee generates -8% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
15.7K
Each employee generates -38% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
9.6K
Each employee generates -33% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.1K
Each employee generates -105% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
90.6K
Each employee generates -105% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RUTH
ONESPAWORLD HOLDINGS Ltd (XNAS:OSW)
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC. (XNAS:SCVL)
WESTPORT FUEL SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:WPRT)
AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC. (XNAS:CRMT)
CHUY'S HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CHUY)
GOLDEN NUGGET ONLINE GAMING, INC.. (XNAS:GNOG)
LIQUIDITY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:LQDT)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNI)
INTERFACE, INC. (XNAS:TILE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
467.97M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
340.87M
127.10M
-
34.58M
50.96M
16.39M
22.55M
73.51M
-
2.50M
20.22M
70.98M
50.68M
43.56M
48.27M
4.71M
43.56M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.79M
Differed Income Tax :
- 83.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.75M
Change in Working Capital :
- 7398.00K
Accounts Receivables:
12.89M
Other Working Capital:
- 3910.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
54.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
9.53M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10050.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/27/22
2022
Q1
66.79M
-
66.79M
26.83M
7.89M
3.11M
104.61M
316.38M
45.55M
46.64M
-
-
1.70M
410.27M
-
514.88M
6.90M
17.00M
-
61.30M
25.16M
110.36M
259.14M
69.00K
261.97M
-
372.34M
337.00K
72.26M
-
-
March 27, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
414.38M
142.55M
514.88M
-
276.14M
209.4M
-
-
- 10050.00K
- 20000.00K
-
-
- 4109.00K
- 721.00K
- 24830.00K
-
- 25347.00K
66.79M
92.13M
9.53M
- 10050.00K
- 517.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RUTH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$20.85
$23.56
$26.63
$30.10
$34.03