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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rush Enterprises, Inc. (XNAS:RUSHA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RUSHA
Name:
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHA)
Sector:
- 11104.00K
Industry:
Auto & Truck Dealerships
CEO:
Mr. W. M. Rush
Total Employees:
7,166
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -47.79% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC.(RUSHA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO & TRUCK DEALERSHIPS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
46.69
One Month Price Target:
$46.97
Six Month Price Target :
$48.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$46.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.92
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.4
This week:
$41.57
This month :
$36.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.61B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
54.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.64%
-15.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.30
$52.39
$36.08
$40.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.79
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.74
$42.58
$43.64
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RUSHA
Sharpe Ratio:
3.16%
Comparison:
RUSHA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 13.96% higher than the industry
& ratio is 38.78% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RUSHA
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.43%
Monthly returns:
1.71%
Yearly returns:
30.75%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -33.16% below industry average
Classification:
RUSHA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
RUSHA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.43%
Weekly Volatility:
5.43%
Monthly Volatility:
10.86%
Yearly Volatility:
37.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.25%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.90%
Weekly VaR:
-10.96%
Monthly VaR:
-21.91%
How Much Can the price of
RUSHA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-75.91%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.10
This translates to price declining to:
$11.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RUSHA is a 54.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 32.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -40.73% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RUSHA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.07
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.712
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.007
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.861
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.506
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.739
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.488
Beta is -28.42% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.468
Beta is -27.40% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.24%
Sustainable growth rate is -43.24% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.101
Alpha is -42.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 643% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RUSHA
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -20.86% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.17%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.17%
WACC is -10.99% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$99.25
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.66
Annual revenue growth rate is -102.78% below industry average
EPS:
$4.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 17.49% higher than the Auto & Truck Dealerships industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.18
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 362.20%
Equity growth rate per share is 855.54% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$8.71
EBITDA per share
$9.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
RUSHA
P/E Ratio:
7.91
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.34
P/E ratio is -56.87% lower than main peers & is -91.07% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $441.01
RUSHA is -89.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.87
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.47
Price to sales ratio is -38.64% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.66
Price to free cash flow: 11.16
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
82.37%
Net income growth rate is -39.45% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.84%
Dividend yeild: 1.63%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.76
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.80%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-11--$0.19
2021-11-05--$0.19
2021-05-07--$0.18
2022-02-25--$0.19
2021-08-09--$0.19
2021-02-24--$0.18
Dividend growth rate is -85.33% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
30.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
65.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.41%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.42%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -76.23% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
193.26
Interest coverage ratio is 4708.78% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
28.06%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 30.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.48
Statistical significance of correlation:
RUSHA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.499
Stock price is -3.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.499
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.008
Kurtosis
5.014
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.581
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RUSHA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.60%
Operating profit margin is 262.18% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.54%
Effective tax rate is -14.14% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is -4146.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is -105.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.35
Current ratio is -23.77% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1.1
Cash conversion cycle is -109.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
761.6K
Each employee generates -13% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
72.7K
Each employee generates 12% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
40.3K
Each employee generates 1% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.5K
Each employee generates -384% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
250.9K
Each employee generates -384% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RUSHA
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHB)
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEA)
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEB)
VISTEON CORPORATION (XNAS:VC)
FRONTDOOR, INC. (XNAS:FTDR)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
RED ROCK RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:RRR)
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:HOVNP)
DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC. (XNAS:DORM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.46B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.26B
1.19B
-
-
780.83M
-
39.63M
820.46M
212.00K
2.69M
140.57M
520.65M
360.31M
288.54M
377.39M
88.86M
288.54M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.81M
Differed Income Tax :
1.02M
Stock Based Compensation :
13.79M
Change in Working Capital :
- 118489.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 58810.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.59M
Investments in PP&E:
- 45689.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
209.53M
-
209.53M
186.76M
1.11B
16.23M
1.52B
1.33B
370.33M
-
-
-
96.37M
1.80B
-
3.32B
171.12M
741.11M
-
71.85M
144.63M
1.13B
478.73M
27.59M
647.81M
-
1.78B
568.00K
1.11B
1.2M
429.90M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.09B
1.55B
3.32B
-
1.22B
1.0B
-
29.40M
- 16290.00K
- 207997.00K
-
- 14421.00K
- 11083.00K
276.59M
43.09M
-
61.38M
209.53M
148.15M
34.59M
- 45689.00K
- 11104.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RUSHA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$50.28
$74.64
$79.98
$85.71
$91.84