_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rumbleon, Inc. (XNAS:RMBL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RMBL
Name:
RumbleON, Inc. (XNAS:RMBL)
Sector:
28.20M
Industry:
Auto & Truck Dealerships
CEO:
Mr. Marshall Chesrown
Total Employees:
1,949
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -190.99% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RUMBLEON, INC.(RMBL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO & TRUCK DEALERSHIPS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.64
One Month Price Target:
$20.93
Six Month Price Target :
$22.35
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.06
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$20.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.01
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.05
This week:
$12.62
This month :
$4.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
332.54M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
139.37%
-30.22%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.28
$29.56
$4.00
$11.72
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.05
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.41
$14.21
$15.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RMBL
Sharpe Ratio:
3.65%
Comparison:
RMBL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 31.56% higher than the industry
& ratio is 60.21% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RMBL
Daily returns:
0.32%
Weekly returns:
1.62%
Monthly returns:
6.47%
Yearly returns:
30.75%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 152.59% above industry average
Classification:
RMBL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.35
Statistical test of Returns:
RMBL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
8.62%
Weekly Volatility:
19.28%
Monthly Volatility:
38.55%
Yearly Volatility:
133.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.07% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-17.38%
Weekly VaR:
-38.87%
Monthly VaR:
-77.73%
How Much Can the price of
RMBL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-65%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.22
This translates to price declining to:
$3.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RMBL is a 448.64% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 370.02% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 110.48% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RMBL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.339
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.894
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
3.378
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.188
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.658
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.428
Beta is 72.67% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.468
Beta is 68.05% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.576
Alpha is 228.41% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3669% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RMBL
Equity cost of capital:
0.200
Equity cost of capital is 51.81% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
27.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.03%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.03%
WACC is 45.76% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$80.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.7
Annual revenue growth rate is -225.85% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-67.37%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -553.42% lower than the Auto & Truck Dealerships industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$31.55
EBITDA per share
$1.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
RMBL
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.83
-
-
RMBL is -109.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.26
Price to sales ratio is -66.61% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.7
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-99.99%
Net income growth rate is -173.50% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
107.60%
Net debt to equity ratio:
126.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.68%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.78
Interest coverage ratio is -80.53% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-99.72%
Annual debt growth is -115% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.90%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.217
Statistical significance of correlation:
RMBL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.499
Stock price is -56.42% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.499
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.197
Kurtosis
101.256
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
6.836
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RMBL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
72%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.21%
Operating profit margin is -33.37% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
72%
Effective Tax Rate:
125.08%
Effective tax rate is 356.14% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -278.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -100.20% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.55
Current ratio is -12.66% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0.1
Cash conversion cycle is -99.20% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
48.59%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
662.1K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
10.1K
Each employee generates -84% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.0K
Each employee generates -95% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
14.5K
Each employee generates 2549% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
443.3K
Each employee generates 2549% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RMBL
iMedia Brands, Inc. (XNAS:IMBI)
CHINA AUTOMOTIVE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CAAS)
YATRA ONLINE, INC. (XNAS:YTRA)
FAT BRANDS INC. (XNAS:FAT)
BBQ HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:BBQ)
GPIC
Oriental Culture Holding LTD (XNAS:OCG)
APPLIED UV, INC. (XNAS:AUVI)
SSLJ
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.29B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.04B
252.21M
1.74M
214.90M
227.95M
13.05M
9.98M
239.67M
-
25.03M
9.98M
19.59M
15.67M
3.87M
- 15417.93K
- 19285.00K
3.87M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.47M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1966.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.88M
Change in Working Capital :
15.85M
Accounts Receivables:
- 10565.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
31.27M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3071.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 64916.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
59.36M
-
59.36M
52.99M
229.03M
15.39M
356.78M
204.74M
348.32M
301.89M
-
-
9.09M
864.03M
-
1.22B
81.89M
148.81M
-
-
-
230.71M
504.85M
10.46M
520.93M
-
751.63M
16.00K
- 104965.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.28B
469.18M
1.22B
-
653.66M
594.3M
-
-
- 67987.00K
- 37440.00K
-
-
-
91.04M
53.60M
-
16.89M
68.86M
51.97M
31.27M
- 3071.00K
28.20M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RMBL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.18
$19.18
$22.36
$26.07
$30.39