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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Royal Gold, Inc. (XNAS:RGLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RGLD
Name:
ROYAL GOLD, INC. (XNAS:RGLD)
Sector:
- 135115.00K
Industry:
Gold
CEO:
Mr. Tony Jensen
Total Employees:
29
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ROYAL GOLD, INC.(RGLD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND GOLD INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
90.45
One Month Price Target:
$90.78
Six Month Price Target :
$92.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$94.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$90.06
Price Upper limit ($) :
$90.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$85.76
This week:
$79.97
This month :
$69.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.88%
-21.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.22
$102.33
$68.68
$78.57
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$99.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.01
$81.76
$83.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RGLD
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.53%
Comparison:
RGLD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -369.83% lower than the industry
& is -123.24% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RGLD
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.09%
Yearly returns:
3.14%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -134.43% below industry average
Classification:
RGLD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
RGLD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.52%
Weekly Volatility:
5.64%
Monthly Volatility:
11.28%
Yearly Volatility:
39.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.04%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -19.27% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.18%
Weekly VaR:
-11.59%
Monthly VaR:
-23.18%
How Much Can the price of
RGLD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-80.30%
This translates to price declining to:
$71.86
This translates to price declining to:
$17.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RGLD is a 63.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.10% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RGLD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.72
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.018
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.633
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.329
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.39
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.112
Beta is -41.07% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.475
Beta is 38.03% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.86%
Sustainable growth rate is 73.36% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.087
Alpha is 167.72% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -555% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RGLD
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is 19.32% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.38%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.61%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.27%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.27%
WACC is 19.24% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.32
Annual revenue growth rate is 46.10% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
41.48%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 553.07% higher than the Gold industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.22
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 18.22%
Equity growth rate per share is -88.15% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$1.45
EBITDA per share
$8.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
RGLD
P/E Ratio:
21.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.6
P/E ratio is 16.01% higher than main peers & is -70.08% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $313.70
RGLD is -71.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $45.63
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.29
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.82
Price to sales ratio is 0.23% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.32
Price to free cash flow: 74.39
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-366.37%
Net income growth rate is 207.52% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.27%
Dividend yeild: 1.49%
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.35
Expected next dividend best case: $0.37
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.31
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.38%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 22/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.35
2022-01-06--$0.35
2021-07-01--$0.30
2022-03-31--$0.35
2021-09-30--$0.30
2021-03-31--$0.30
Dividend growth rate is -95.98% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.75%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.20%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
174.32
Interest coverage ratio is 267.36% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is 0% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.251
Statistical significance of correlation:
RGLD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.245
Stock price is 2.51% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.245
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.031
Kurtosis
21.156
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.581
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RGLD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
250%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
50.18%
Operating profit margin is 73.12% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
250%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.78%
Effective tax rate is -76.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is 25.77% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is 53.45% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.85
Current ratio is 18.12% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-5.4
Cash conversion cycle is -129.81% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.48%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
23.2M
Each employee generates 93% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
18.5M
Each employee generates 97% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.8M
Each employee generates 99% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4659.1K
Each employee generates 101% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
88.7M
Each employee generates 101% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RGLD
Pan American Silver Corp. (XNAS:PAAS)
UFP INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPI)
BALCHEM CORPORATION (XNAS:BCPC)
SSR Mining Inc. (XNAS:SSRM)
AMYRIS, INC. (XNAS:AMRS)
WD-40 COMPANY (XNAS:WDFC)
METHANEX CORPORATION (XNAS:MEOH)
INNOSPEC INC. (XNAS:IOSP)
STEEL DYNAMICS, INC. (XNAS:STLD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
673.33M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
252.69M
420.64M
-
31.31M
31.31M
-
-
31.31M
2.47M
3.07M
195.70M
535.51M
337.91M
313.85M
337.56M
22.89M
313.85M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
50.61M
Differed Income Tax :
- 396.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.50M
Change in Working Capital :
7.03M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 20.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
959.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
129.89M
Investments in PP&E:
- 265000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
160.21M
-
160.21M
57.04M
12.22M
2.61M
232.08M
2.48B
-
-
-
-
96.96M
2.57B
-
2.81B
5.47M
95.40M
23.93M
-
- 40610.00K
60.26M
95.40M
7.81M
190.90M
-
251.16M
656.00K
336.73M
-
2.20B
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
335.43M
2.54B
2.79B
-
190.81M
30.6M
-
- 7733.00K
- 272733.00K
-
- 909.00K
- 909.00K
- 19682.00K
98.64M
77.14M
-
- 65708.00K
160.21M
225.92M
129.89M
- 265000.00K
- 135115.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RGLD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$94.90
$99.08
$103.44
$108.00
$112.75