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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Roper Technologies, Inc. (XNYS:ROP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ROP
Name:
ROPER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:ROP)
Sector:
460.70M
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. L. Neil Hunn
Total Employees:
19,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 139.81% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ROPER TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(ROP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
400.92
One Month Price Target:
$403.26
Six Month Price Target :
$414.98
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$429.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$399.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$402.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$385.37
This week:
$366.15
This month :
$331.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
42.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.01M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.24%
-10.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$473.06
$439.91
$328.78
$361.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$429.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$422.04
$372.63
$379.80
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ROP
Sharpe Ratio:
1.60%
Comparison:
ROP, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -15.36% lower than the industry
& is -29.64% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ROP
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.20%
Monthly returns:
0.79%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -41.75% below industry average
Classification:
ROP, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
ROP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.91%
Weekly Volatility:
4.27%
Monthly Volatility:
8.53%
Yearly Volatility:
29.55%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.86%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.88%
Weekly VaR:
-8.67%
Monthly VaR:
-17.34%
How Much Can the price of
ROP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-60.08%
This translates to price declining to:
$341.24
This translates to price declining to:
$160.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ROP is a 22.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 4.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -30.28% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ROP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.866
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.225
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.756
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.69
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.688
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.967
Beta is 7.95% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is -18.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.34%
Sustainable growth rate is -50.69% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.008
Alpha is -119.28% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -53% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ROP
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -13.67% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.40%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.40%
WACC is -79.33% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$57.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.14
Annual revenue growth rate is -55.60% below industry average
EPS:
$27.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-18.45%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -705.02% lower than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$17.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 36.21%
Equity growth rate per share is 235.42% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$62.78
EBITDA per share
$38.14
Valuation Analysis Today of
ROP
P/E Ratio:
46.47
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.54
P/E ratio is 42.83% higher than main peers & is 68.91% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $743.43
ROP is -46.07% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $51.01
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $29.94
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.98
Price to sales ratio is 68.21% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.14
Price to free cash flow: 23.03
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
19.61%
Net income growth rate is 1357.03% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.26%
Dividend yeild: 0.59%
Previous Dividend: $0.62
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.62
Previous Dividend: $2.37
Expected next dividend best case: $0.66
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.58
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.22%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 22/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 17/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-04--$0.62
2021-10-05--$0.56
2021-04-01--$0.56
2022-01-07--$0.62
2021-07-07--$0.56
2021-01-07--$0.56
Dividend growth rate is -36.33% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
31.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.89% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.87
Interest coverage ratio is -8.42% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.22%
Annual debt growth is -123% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.755
Statistical significance of correlation:
ROP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is 18.77% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
8.049
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.434
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ROP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.67%
Operating profit margin is -206.01% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.54%
Effective tax rate is 20.60% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.28%
Return on equity (ROE) is 533.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is 139.71% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.28
Current ratio is -57.60% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
31.3
Cash conversion cycle is -49.17% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.24%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
315.5K
Each employee generates -92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
209.5K
Each employee generates -72% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
149.4K
Each employee generates -62% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.9K
Each employee generates -53% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -53% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ROP
IHS Markit Ltd. (XNYS:INFO)
Trane Technologies plc (XNYS:TT)
CARRIER GLOBAL CORPORATION (XNYS:CARR)
Enbridge Inc. (XNYS:ENBA)
L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:LHX)
THOMSON REUTERS CORPORATION (XNYS:TRI)
REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:RSG)
PARKER-HANNIFIN CORPORATION (XNYS:PH)
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC (XNYS:JCI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�21%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.09B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.01B
4.08B
-
-
2.42B
-
-
2.42B
-
226.20M
631.90M
4.04B
1.56B
2.88B
1.33B
300.70M
2.88B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
159.10M
Differed Income Tax :
79.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
35.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 38900.00K
Accounts Receivables:
82.00M
Other Working Capital:
29.40M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 47400.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
475.30M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 53200.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.24B
-
3.24B
884.50M
202.70M
160.90M
4.49B
98.90M
14.09B
6.45B
-
101.40M
400.90M
21.15B
-
25.64B
167.80M
799.50M
793.00M
1.12B
1.41B
3.50B
6.65B
451.20M
8.58B
-
12.08B
1.10M
11.41B
- 206000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.43B
13.55B
25.64B
-
7.45B
4.2B
-
2.99B
2.94B
-
5.50M
-
- 65300.00K
- 460400.00K
- 520200.00K
- 7300.00K
2.89B
3.24B
351.50M
475.30M
- 14600.00K
460.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ROP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$431.18
$752.71
$805.49
$861.98
$922.42