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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rollins, Inc. (XNYS:ROL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ROL
Name:
ROLLINS, INC. (XNYS:ROL)
Sector:
79.54M
Industry:
Personal Services
CEO:
Mr. Gary Rollins
Total Employees:
16,482
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -82.51% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ROLLINS, INC.(ROL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PERSONAL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
33.74
One Month Price Target:
$33.86
Six Month Price Target :
$34.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$33.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$32.39
This week:
$30.72
This month :
$27.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
17.62B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
492.42M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.04%
-10.81%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.00
$37.09
$27.48
$30.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.53
$31.33
$31.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ROL
Sharpe Ratio:
3.58%
Comparison:
ROL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 1159.62% higher than the industry
& ratio is 57.21% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ROL
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.60%
Yearly returns:
0.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 11109.45% above industry average
Classification:
ROL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
ROL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.99%
Weekly Volatility:
4.44%
Monthly Volatility:
8.89%
Yearly Volatility:
30.78%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.00%
Weekly VaR:
-8.95%
Monthly VaR:
-17.89%
How Much Can the price of
ROL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-61.98%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.71
This translates to price declining to:
$12.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ROL is a 26.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 8.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.78% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ROL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.63
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.614
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.868
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.483
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.593
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.477
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.205
Beta is -47.83% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.861
Beta is -27.02% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.37%
Sustainable growth rate is -13.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.118
Alpha is -232.40% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 748% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ROL
Equity cost of capital:
0.075
Equity cost of capital is -17.62% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.12%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.12%
WACC is -2.12% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
15
Annual revenue growth rate is 97.48% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.76%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 9590.54% higher than the Personal Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.69
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 36.29%
Equity growth rate per share is -1085.94% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.92
EBITDA per share
$1.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
ROL
P/E Ratio:
50.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.7
P/E ratio is 265.17% higher than main peers & is 20.97% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $27.71
ROL is 21.75% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.7
Price to sales ratio is 90.77% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
15
Price to free cash flow: 48.60
Price to free cash flow ratio is 33.97% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
51.03%
Net income growth rate is -116.48% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.89%
Dividend yeild: 1.36%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.46
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.07
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 21.13%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.10
2021-11-09--$0.08
2021-05-07--$0.08
2022-02-09--$0.10
2021-08-09--$0.08
2021-02-09--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is 1197.30% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
40.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
25.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
686.38
Interest coverage ratio is 871.36% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.45%
Annual debt growth is -184% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.31%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.577
Statistical significance of correlation:
ROL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.482
Stock price is 19.73% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.482
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.031
Kurtosis
5.513
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.436
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ROL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
207%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.89%
Operating profit margin is 57.50% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
207%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.13%
Effective tax rate is 9.52% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
29.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is -117.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is 99.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.03
Current ratio is 1.37% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
18.3
Cash conversion cycle is -3.96% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.86%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
150.4K
Each employee generates -63% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.0K
Each employee generates -69% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
20.1K
Each employee generates -71% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.8K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
99.2K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ROL
DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNYS:DRI)
LB Group Co., Ltd. (XSHE:002601)
NVR, Inc. (XNYS:NVR)
Amcor plc (XNYS:AMCR)
GENUINE PARTS COMPANY (XNYS:GPC)
MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:MGM)
DOMINO'S PIZZA, INC. (XNYS:DPZ)
PULTEGROUP, INC. (XNYS:PHM)
MOHAWK INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:MHK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.48B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.20B
1.28B
-
565.28M
744.07M
-
95.46M
839.52M
504.00K
792.00K
95.46M
543.62M
443.46M
330.49M
447.37M
116.88M
330.49M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.85M
Differed Income Tax :
2.05M
Stock Based Compensation :
6.14M
Change in Working Capital :
- 20922.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1440.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.64M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.98M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
87.53M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 13223.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
258.34M
-
258.34M
164.25M
29.06M
44.86M
496.51M
373.72M
730.14M
438.42M
-
-
92.35M
1.63B
-
2.13B
38.59M
89.46M
-
156.52M
196.33M
480.90M
450.62M
92.10M
542.72M
-
1.02B
492.46M
524.16M
- 13874.0K
104.78M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.04B
1.11B
2.13B
-
540.09M
281.7M
-
- 6705.00K
- 19928.00K
- 122000.00K
-
- 6434.00K
- 49205.00K
259.73M
82.09M
3.34M
153.04M
258.34M
105.30M
87.53M
- 7995.00K
79.54M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ROL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.77
$36.23
$37.77
$39.36
$41.02