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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Riot Blockchain, Inc. (XNAS:RIOT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RIOT
Name:
RIOT BLOCKCHAIN, INC. (XNAS:RIOT)
Sector:
- 185584.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey McGonegal
Total Employees:
335
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -100.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RIOT BLOCKCHAIN, INC.(RIOT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.63
One Month Price Target:
$6.8
Six Month Price Target :
$7.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.76
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.55
This week:
$4.21
This month :
$1.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
154.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
48.41%
-29.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.65
$9.28
$1.61
$3.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.01
$4.74
$5.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RIOT
Sharpe Ratio:
6.69%
Comparison:
RIOT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 594.10% higher than the industry
& ratio is 193.53% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RIOT
Daily returns:
0.56%
Weekly returns:
2.80%
Monthly returns:
11.20%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1252.11% above industry average
Classification:
RIOT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.07
Statistical test of Returns:
RIOT has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
8.24%
Weekly Volatility:
18.41%
Monthly Volatility:
36.83%
Yearly Volatility:
127.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -54.35% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-16.35%
Weekly VaR:
-36.57%
Monthly VaR:
-73.14%
How Much Can the price of
RIOT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-58%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.77
This translates to price declining to:
$0.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RIOT is a 416.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 342.22% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 129.11% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RIOT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--4.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
2.101
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.971
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
4.517
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
2.172
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.016
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.147
Beta is 299.46% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 243.15% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.90%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.68% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.998
Alpha is -4327.86% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 6354% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RIOT
Equity cost of capital:
0.345
Equity cost of capital is 180.87% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
34.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-2.99%
After-tax cost of debt:
-2.36%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-2.36%
WACC is 275.90% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.74
Annual revenue growth rate is 131.13% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-57.19%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -309.09% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.13
EBITDA per share
$0.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
RIOT
P/E Ratio:
55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
43.45
P/E ratio is 26.57% higher than main peers & is -69.03% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $31.97
RIOT is -79.26% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6
Price to sales ratio is -47.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.74
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-98.09%
Net income growth rate is -140.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-6.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.92%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-79.67
Interest coverage ratio is -249.98% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.408
Statistical significance of correlation:
RIOT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -18.85% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.058
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.278
Kurtosis
3.789
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.991
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RIOT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-369%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.80%
Operating profit margin is -125.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-369%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.29%
Effective tax rate is -98.91% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.45%
Return on equity (ROE) is -111.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -133.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.78
Current ratio is 26.35% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-100.3
Cash conversion cycle is -205.84% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
15.08%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
509.5K
Each employee generates 47% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
155.3K
Each employee generates 1345% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
60.2K
Each employee generates -445% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 554.0K
Each employee generates 7032% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.3M
Each employee generates 7032% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RIOT
CSOD
IROBOT CORPORATION (XNAS:IRBT)
MIMECAST LIMITED (XNAS:MIME)
PLEXUS CORP. (XNAS:PLXS)
SVMK
NOVA LTD (XNAS:NVMI)
FORMFACTOR, INC. (XNAS:FORM)
TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD (XNAS:TSEM)
VERTEX, INC. (XNAS:VERX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
170.68M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
120.19M
50.49M
-
-
92.88M
-
11.40M
104.28M
120.00K
- 653.00K
32.45M
52.03M
8.20M
20.17M
20.23M
58.00K
20.17M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.60M
Differed Income Tax :
312.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.04M
Change in Working Capital :
- 83555.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 621.00K
Other Working Capital:
506.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 15348.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 45318.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 140240.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
113.58M
198.83M
312.41M
27.08M
-
100.22M
439.70M
346.75M
349.15M
13.72M
-
-
400.43M
1.11B
-
1.55B
11.27M
1.51M
-
7.71M
95.69M
116.18M
20.35M
6.22M
45.89M
-
162.07M
1.59B
- 202209.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
290.54M
1.39B
1.55B
-
21.85M
- 91728.0K
-
- 26.00K
- 140266.00K
-
-
- 8307.00K
-
- 4843.00K
- 13150.00K
-
- 198734.00K
113.58M
312.32M
- 45318.00K
- 140266.00K
- 185584.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RIOT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.32
$9.57
$12.51
$16.37
$21.41