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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (XNYS:REPX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
REPX
Name:
RILEY EXPLORATION PERMIAN, INC. (XNYS:REPX)
Sector:
21.61M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Michael Rugen
Total Employees:
54
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1.62% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RILEY EXPLORATION PERMIAN, INC.(REPX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.11
One Month Price Target:
$24.24
Six Month Price Target :
$24.9
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.34
This week:
$13.45
This month :
$2.79
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
490.09M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.87M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
165.81%
-41.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.19
$35.84
$2.03
$12.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.26
$15.73
$17.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
REPX
Sharpe Ratio:
5.77%
Comparison:
REPX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 25.64% higher than the industry
& ratio is 153.31% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
REPX
Daily returns:
0.58%
Weekly returns:
2.90%
Monthly returns:
11.62%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 127.03% above industry average
Classification:
REPX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.16
Statistical test of Returns:
REPX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
9.91%
Weekly Volatility:
22.16%
Monthly Volatility:
44.31%
Yearly Volatility:
153.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.81%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-19.77%
Weekly VaR:
-44.21%
Monthly VaR:
-88.41%
How Much Can the price of
REPX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-72%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.87
This translates to price declining to:
$3.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
REPX is a 524.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 434.59% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 85.64% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
REPX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.513
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.726
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.628
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.745
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.01
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.675
Beta is -42.01% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -51.74% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.296
Alpha is 191.41% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 8252% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
REPX
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is -42.11% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.01
Annual revenue growth rate is -40.99% below industry average
EPS:
$0.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
31.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1.21% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.38
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$0.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
REPX
P/E Ratio:
6.99
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.28
P/E ratio is 11.27% higher than main peers & is -83.39% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $13.48
REPX is 78.91% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.15
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.44
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.03
Price to sales ratio is -38.43% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.01
Price to free cash flow: 10.14
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-331.37%
Net income growth rate is -146.62% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -46.53%
Dividend yeild: 5.02%
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $1.21
Expected next dividend best case: $0.34
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.68%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 21/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/11/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-20--$0.31
2021-10-20--$0.31
2021-04-15--$0.28
2022-01-25--$0.31
2021-07-22--$0.28
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -93.52% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
66.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.10%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -24.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.97
Interest coverage ratio is -24.69% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
52360.50%
Annual debt growth is 2306% higher than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.155
Statistical significance of correlation:
REPX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -60.65% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.014
Kurtosis
118.508
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
7.461
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
REPX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
208%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
76.30%
Operating profit margin is -5645.77% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
208%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.95%
Effective tax rate is -9.29% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-5.47%
Return on equity (ROE) is -164.28% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.29%
Return on assets (ROA) is -242.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0.49
Current ratio is -75.54% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-11.3
Cash conversion cycle is -115.94% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 24.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.31%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.9M
Each employee generates -63% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
254.7K
Each employee generates -90% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 241.0K
Each employee generates -158% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
400.2K
Each employee generates -534% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
6.8M
Each employee generates -534% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
REPX
URANIUM ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:UEC)
PINEDALE ENERGY LIMITED (XTSX:MCF.H)
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:LEU)
Denison Mines Corp. (XNYS:DNN)
Ur-Energy Inc. (XNYS:URG)
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. (XNYS:GTE)
NORTHERN OIL AND GAS, INC. (XNYS:NOG)
RING ENERGY INC. (XNYS:REI)
BATTALION OIL CORPORATION (XNYS:BATL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
158.01M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
47.11M
110.90M
-
15.38M
19.97M
-
5.17M
20.55M
-
2.30M
27.27M
13.76M
120.55M
- 13015.00K
- 15630.00K
- 2806.00K
- 13015.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.87M
Differed Income Tax :
5.76M
Stock Based Compensation :
951.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 3294.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 529.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 32772.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
11.45M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
21.73M
Investments in PP&E:
- 117.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
8.32M
-
8.32M
18.00M
-
4.99M
31.30M
3.17M
-
-
-
-
361.69M
364.87M
-
396.17M
7.74M
-
-
-
56.34M
64.08M
-
76.87M
94.26M
-
158.33M
20.00K
- 33919.00K
-
271.74M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
67.65M
237.84M
396.17M
-
-
- 8317.0K
-
- 29011.00K
- 29128.00K
-
-
- 19.00K
- 6056.00K
4.73M
- 1349.00K
-
- 8750.00K
8.32M
17.07M
21.73M
- 117.00K
21.61M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
REPX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.81
$18.59
$19.80
$21.10
$22.47