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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc (XNYS:REXR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
REXR
Name:
REXFORD INDUSTRIAL REALTY, INC (XNYS:REXR)
Sector:
64.32M
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. Michael Frankel
Total Employees:
186
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -59.79% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF REXFORD INDUSTRIAL REALTY, INC(REXR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
61.19
One Month Price Target:
$61.46
Six Month Price Target :
$62.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$64.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$61.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$61.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$58.53
This week:
$55.25
This month :
$49.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
171.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.59%
-20.34%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$73.51
$67.82
$48.87
$54.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$65.97
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.76
$56.39
$57.62
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
REXR
Sharpe Ratio:
2.59%
Comparison:
REXR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 6.95% higher than the industry
& ratio is 13.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
REXR
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.29%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 9.90% above industry average
Classification:
REXR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.14
Statistical test of Returns:
REXR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.15%
Weekly Volatility:
4.80%
Monthly Volatility:
9.60%
Yearly Volatility:
33.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.86%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.34%
Weekly VaR:
-9.71%
Monthly VaR:
-19.42%
How Much Can the price of
REXR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-67.27%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.13
This translates to price declining to:
$20.03
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
REXR is a 37.05% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.51% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
REXR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.603
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.853
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.761
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.745
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.017
Beta is -22.17% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is 7.66% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.069
Alpha is 17.13% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 438% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
REXR
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is 4.71% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.63%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.08%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.08%
WACC is 30.86% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.94
Annual revenue growth rate is 204.08% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.40%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 116.92% higher than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.10
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 60.94%
Equity growth rate per share is 395.82% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$8.91
EBITDA per share
$1.91
Valuation Analysis Today of
REXR
P/E Ratio:
64.7
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.03
P/E ratio is 180.97% higher than main peers & is -3.89% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $59.24
REXR is 3.29% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $80.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $44.17
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
21.22
Price to sales ratio is 58.49% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.94
Price to free cash flow: 55.71
Price to free cash flow ratio is 157.23% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
92.88%
Net income growth rate is 395.96% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 29.58%
Dividend yeild: 1.81%
Previous Dividend: $0.32
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.32
Previous Dividend: $1.11
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.91%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.32
2021-12-30--$0.24
2021-06-29--$0.24
2022-03-30--$0.32
2021-09-29--$0.24
2021-03-30--$0.24
Dividend growth rate is -164.29% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
29.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
29.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.98%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.31%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.54% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.16
Interest coverage ratio is -16311.76% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
9.05%
Annual debt growth is -18% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 14.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.713
Statistical significance of correlation:
REXR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is 15.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.065
Kurtosis
14.963
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.186
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
REXR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
305%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
33.42%
Operating profit margin is 3.95% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
305%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is -65.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is -48.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.95
Current ratio is -67.33% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
8.9
Cash conversion cycle is -51.14% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.15%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.7M
Each employee generates 61% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 25% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
784.9K
Each employee generates 16% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
345.8K
Each employee generates 79% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
38.3M
Each employee generates 79% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
REXR
LIFE STORAGE, INC. (XNYS:LSI)
ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:NLY)
CUBESMART (XNYS:CUBE)
FEDERAL REALTY INVESTMENT TRUST (XNYS:FRT)
FRT-PC
JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED (XNYS:JLL)
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:HST)
VER-PF
STORE CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:STOR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
493.20M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
117.58M
375.63M
-
52.23M
52.23M
-
158.60M
210.82M
24.00K
40.07M
140.77M
326.83M
164.81M
145.98M
154.50M
-
145.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
37.38M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.05M
Change in Working Capital :
13.89M
Accounts Receivables:
1.24M
Other Working Capital:
- 2839.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 14625.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
91.59M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
48.84M
-
48.84M
78.96M
-
18.28M
146.08M
-
-
158.82M
-
-
6.96B
7.12B
-
7.26B
85.47M
-
-
14.27M
54.12M
153.85M
1.52B
198.19M
1.72B
-
1.88B
1.65M
-
- 3674.0K
4.93B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
328.40M
5.09B
6.96B
-
1.52B
1.5B
-
- 471622.00K
- 471622.00K
- 267635.00K
305.71M
- 2015.00K
- 43180.00K
392.00M
384.88M
-
4.85M
48.84M
44.00M
91.59M
- 27277.00K
64.32M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
REXR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$63.32
$66.69
$70.23
$73.97
$77.90