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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (XNAS:ROIC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ROIC
Name:
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
Sector:
47.77M
Industry:
REIT�Retail
CEO:
Mr. Stuart Tanz
Total Employees:
68
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -111.61% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP.(ROIC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.62
One Month Price Target:
$16.75
Six Month Price Target :
$17.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.16
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.72
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.49
This week:
$14.09
This month :
$11.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
124.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.21%
-34.69%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.88
$19.47
$11.36
$13.77
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.69
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.17
$14.55
$15.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ROIC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.16%
Comparison:
ROIC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 11.61% higher than the industry
& is -49.15% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ROIC
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.95%
Yearly returns:
8.74%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 30.71% above industry average
Classification:
ROIC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.4
Statistical test of Returns:
ROIC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.34%
Weekly Volatility:
7.47%
Monthly Volatility:
14.95%
Yearly Volatility:
51.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.88%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.82%
Weekly VaR:
-15.24%
Monthly VaR:
-30.48%
How Much Can the price of
ROIC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.23
This translates to price declining to:
$2.49
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ROIC is a 115.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 84.32% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.93% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ROIC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.37
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.862
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.219
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.742
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.9
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.385
Beta is -0.79% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.101
Beta is 24.86% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.011
Alpha is -41.40% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -73% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ROIC
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is 17.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.35%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.44%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.44%
WACC is 14.48% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.5
Annual revenue growth rate is 29.54% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.44
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -151.94% lower than the REIT�Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.06
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -60.40%
Equity growth rate per share is 188.47% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.49
EBITDA per share
$1.68
Valuation Analysis Today of
ROIC
P/E Ratio:
41.24
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
705.17
P/E ratio is -94.15% lower than main peers & is -13.58% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $21.00
ROIC is -20.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $50.89
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.74
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.1
Price to sales ratio is -25.99% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.5
Price to free cash flow: 15.65
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
13.48%
Net income growth rate is -201.24% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 41.38%
Dividend yeild: 2.65%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.17
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.73%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.13
2021-12-22--$0.07
2021-09-16--$0.11
2022-03-17--$0.13
2021-12-16--$0.11
2021-06-17--$0.11
Dividend growth rate is -95.39% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
101.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
100.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
44.70%
Net debt to assets ratio:
44.43%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -18.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.64
Interest coverage ratio is 21.55% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.24%
Annual debt growth is -359% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.80%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.552
Statistical significance of correlation:
ROIC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.511
Stock price is 7.87% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.511
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.045
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.087
Kurtosis
26.681
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.394
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ROIC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
291%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
40.88%
Operating profit margin is 33.12% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
291%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.48%
Return on equity (ROE) is -61.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is -33.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
1.48
Current ratio is -96.49% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
71.7
Cash conversion cycle is -66.06% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
4.3M
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
3.1M
Each employee generates -4% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
849.0K
Each employee generates -33% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
702.5K
Each employee generates 25% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
41.7M
Each employee generates 25% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ROIC
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC. (XNAS:MDRRP)
UNITI GROUP INC. (XNAS:UNIT)
SERVICE PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:SVC)
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC. (XNAS:SBRA)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMT)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMTN)
NYMTP
OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST (XNAS:OPI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
291.39M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
79.55M
211.84M
-
20.52M
20.52M
-
93.98M
114.50M
-
57.27M
93.65M
208.66M
119.12M
57.73M
61.85M
-
57.73M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
23.76M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.57M
Change in Working Capital :
11.32M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
2.21M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2351.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
47.77M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
17.87M
-
17.87M
59.58M
-
7.28M
84.73M
-
-
-
-
-
2.79B
2.84B
-
2.92B
-
10.00M
-
-
47.39M
57.39M
1.31B
180.39M
1.49B
-
1.54B
12.00K
- 302279.00K
- 1095.0K
1.59B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
194.05M
1.29B
2.83B
-
1.32B
1.3B
-
- 17009.00K
- 17009.00K
- 37639.00K
14.51M
-
- 23890.00K
21.24M
- 25772.00K
-
4.99M
20.35M
15.36M
47.77M
-
47.77M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ROIC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.25
$101.37
$110.73
$120.96
$132.13