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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Republic Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:RBCAA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RBCAA
Name:
REPUBLIC BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:RBCAA)
Sector:
80.12M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Steven Trager
Total Employees:
1,035
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 143.45% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF REPUBLIC BANCORP, INC.(RBCAA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
41.93
One Month Price Target:
$42.05
Six Month Price Target :
$42.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.55
This week:
$36.62
This month :
$31.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
815.93M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.06%
-15.35%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.96
$47.93
$30.90
$35.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.21
$37.56
$38.65
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RBCAA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.44%
Comparison:
RBCAA, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -64.15% lower than the industry
& is -80.68% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RBCAA
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.42%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -53.72% below industry average
Classification:
RBCAA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
RBCAA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.77%
Weekly Volatility:
6.19%
Monthly Volatility:
12.38%
Yearly Volatility:
42.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.89% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.67%
Weekly VaR:
-12.67%
Monthly VaR:
-25.34%
How Much Can the price of
RBCAA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.77%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.63
This translates to price declining to:
$5.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RBCAA is a 78.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.20% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.07% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RBCAA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.617
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.872
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.485
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.552
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.951
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.011
Beta is -49.21% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -46.71% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.37%
Sustainable growth rate is -19.29% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.016
Alpha is -239.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -103% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RBCAA
Equity cost of capital:
0.067
Equity cost of capital is -31.62% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.94%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.27%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.27%
WACC is -42.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.99
Annual revenue growth rate is -80.57% below industry average
EPS:
$4.82
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.93%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -83.96% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.82
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 26.22%
Equity growth rate per share is -32.29% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.20
EBITDA per share
$6.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
RBCAA
P/E Ratio:
9.48
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.59
P/E ratio is -1.14% lower than main peers & is -23.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $59.81
RBCAA is -29.89% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $62.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $33.34
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.84
Price to sales ratio is -33.57% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.99
Price to free cash flow: 5.36
Price to free cash flow ratio is -53.09% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
11.07%
Net income growth rate is -79.90% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.85%
Dividend yeild: 3.10%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $1.30
Expected next dividend best case: $0.36
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.32
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.67%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.34
2021-12-16--$0.31
2021-06-17--$0.31
2022-03-17--$0.34
2021-09-16--$0.31
2021-03-18--$0.31
Dividend growth rate is -88.67% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-120.66%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-15.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
25.18
Interest coverage ratio is 2938.61% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-79.83%
Annual debt growth is -25306% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 28.34%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.489
Statistical significance of correlation:
RBCAA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -2.33% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.03
Kurtosis
6.47
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.109
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RBCAA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.70%
Effective tax rate is -3.92% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is -11.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is -39.41% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
281.5K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
122.1K
Each employee generates -46% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
85.7K
Each employee generates -39% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
77.4K
Each employee generates -7% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
684.0K
Each employee generates -7% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RBCAA
LAKELAND BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:LBAI)
HOMESTREET, INC. (XNAS:HMST)
BMTC GROUP INC. (XTSE:GBT)
FTOC
Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:WASH)
MIDCAP FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:MFIC)
PREFERRED BANK (XNAS:PFBC)
NATIONAL WESTERN LIFE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NWLI)
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NFBK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
291.35M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
138.20M
142.98M
4.78M
-
-
219.92M
5.02M
11.90M
126.38M
-
88.66M
100.44M
20.79M
88.66M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.71M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
689.00K
Change in Working Capital :
16.18M
Accounts Receivables:
451.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
32.95M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
80.44M
Investments in PP&E:
- 323.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 119422.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.08B
573.54M
1.65B
10.40M
-
-
-
76.76M
16.30M
-
614.84M
-
-
707.90M
7.06B
6.35B
-
-
-
-
-
-
63.20M
-
63.20M
5.57B
5.51B
4.70M
708.87M
- 14043.0K
140.80M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
840.33M
6.35B
1.19B
63.20M
- 1013954.0K
21.45M
105.48M
7.19M
- 25000.00K
-
-
- 6075.00K
263.63M
232.56M
-
320.19M
1.08B
756.97M
80.44M
- 323.00K
80.12M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RBCAA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$50.54
$52.29
$54.09
$55.96
$57.89