_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Repligen Corporation (XNAS:RGEN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RGEN
Name:
REPLIGEN CORPORATION (XNAS:RGEN)
Sector:
- 5118.00K
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. Anthony Hunt
Total Employees:
1,852
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -312.83% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF REPLIGEN CORPORATION(RGEN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
210.34
One Month Price Target:
$211.6
Six Month Price Target :
$217.89
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$225.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$209.59
Price Upper limit ($) :
$211.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$197.29
This week:
$181.17
This month :
$152.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
55.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.25%
-11.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$270.79
$242.50
$149.89
$178.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$233.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$227.25
$187.31
$193.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RGEN
Sharpe Ratio:
5.21%
Comparison:
RGEN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 225.11% higher than the industry
& ratio is 128.39% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RGEN
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.85%
Monthly returns:
3.41%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 178.50% above industry average
Classification:
RGEN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
RGEN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.10%
Weekly Volatility:
6.94%
Monthly Volatility:
13.88%
Yearly Volatility:
48.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.08%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.20%
Weekly VaR:
-13.87%
Monthly VaR:
-27.74%
How Much Can the price of
RGEN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$162.87
This translates to price declining to:
$31.55
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RGEN is a 95.77% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.89% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RGEN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.07
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.845
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.195
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.021
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.963
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.588
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.972
Beta is 9.87% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is 7.94% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.43%
Sustainable growth rate is -49.47% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.304
Alpha is 539.74% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1937% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RGEN
Equity cost of capital:
0.105
Equity cost of capital is 5.42% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.00%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.99%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.99%
WACC is 3.92% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.61
Annual revenue growth rate is 242.97% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
72.03%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 522.85% higher than the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.75
-
-
Debt per share
$1.81
EBITDA per share
$4.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
RGEN
P/E Ratio:
75.9
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
147.95
P/E ratio is -48.70% lower than main peers & is 52.13% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $125.72
RGEN is 67.31% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
15.9
Price to sales ratio is 114.40% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.61
Price to free cash flow: 281.38
Price to free cash flow ratio is 225.57% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
514.20%
Net income growth rate is -586.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.26% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
23.34
Interest coverage ratio is -67.09% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
32.91%
Annual debt growth is -70% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.464
Statistical significance of correlation:
RGEN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is -8.07% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.09
Kurtosis
2.185
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.118
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RGEN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
236%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.00%
Operating profit margin is 94.24% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
236%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.71%
Effective tax rate is -43.06% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is -118.10% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is -14.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.23
Current ratio is -39.02% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
76.1
Cash conversion cycle is 44.26% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
396.4K
Each employee generates 12% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
124.8K
Each employee generates 12% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
78.7K
Each employee generates 1% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.8K
Each employee generates -52% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
777.0K
Each employee generates -52% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 69.82%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 26867.28% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
RGEN
BRUKER CORPORATION (XNAS:BRKR)
JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:JAZZ)
Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc (XNAS:MRVI)
HENRY SCHEIN, INC. (XNAS:HSIC)
NATERA, INC. (XNAS:NTRA)
UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION (XNAS:UTHR)
SYNEOS HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:SYNH)
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:NBIX)
ICON PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ICLR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
734.10M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
301.89M
432.21M
38.82M
-
199.07M
-
-
237.89M
-
9.90M
41.84M
231.11M
190.87M
145.81M
179.37M
33.56M
145.81M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.83M
Differed Income Tax :
1.05M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.92M
Change in Working Capital :
- 42759.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 6269.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1886.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
23.11M
Investments in PP&E:
- 27204.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
584.64M
-
584.64M
122.44M
213.78M
23.94M
944.79M
247.38M
859.49M
329.93M
-
1.61M
631.00K
1.44B
-
2.38B
38.28M
293.15M
5.91M
20.08M
72.83M
424.33M
100.44M
66.80M
193.09M
-
617.42M
554.00K
258.28M
- 21574.0K
1.53B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
539.78M
1.77B
2.38B
-
393.58M
- 191056.0K
-
- 1010.00K
- 28214.00K
- 6.00K
-
-
-
- 12015.00K
- 12021.00K
- 2052.00K
- 19174.00K
584.64M
603.81M
23.11M
- 28231.00K
- 5118.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RGEN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$226.56
$411.01
$440.51
$472.12
$506.00